Facts

• Brent crude futures (OIL) have pulled back from the local high of $110 seen on Friday, September 11, to around $104.3 at approximately 11:00 CET on Thursday, September 17.
• Donald Trump said the U.S. may be approaching the end of the war with Iran and confirmed that talks with Tehran are being conducted directly, without intermediaries.
• Saudi Aramco is working to bypass the damaged section of the 1,200-km East-West Pipeline and aims to restore around half of its capacity within days. Full operations are expected to be restored in approximately six weeks.
• According to an assessment by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the war with Iran had cost the United States at least $38 billion through the end of July.

Recommendation Short OIL at market price

• Take profit: $95.5
• Stop loss: $110

View The prospect of renewed U.S.-Iran negotiations roughly six weeks before the U.S. congressional midterm elections may give Tehran an opportunity to negotiate more favorable terms for a potential agreement. The United States has already committed substantial financial resources to the war in the Middle East, while American households have also felt the economic cost through record fuel prices and, potentially, higher borrowing costs following the Fed’s latest rate hike. Against this backdrop, the political challenges facing Republicans, combined with the risk of the conflict spreading toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, appear to reduce the incentive for further escalation from current levels. All sides, including Iran, whose oil exports have been significantly disrupted, have already raised the stakes to economically painful levels. If Saudi Aramco succeeds in rapidly restoring the East-West Pipeline and the Houthis refrain from further attacks on critical energy infrastructure, the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices could continue to decline. In the short term, this would shift the risk-reward balance toward further downside in oil prices. Oil futures are still up more than 40% from their local lows reached in late June. We therefore recommend a short position in OIL, with a target at $95.5 based on price-action methodology and a stop loss at the round $110 level, which coincides with the local highs from last Friday.

Source: xStation5

Market Analysis & Disclaimer

Prepared by: Octalas Group Ltd on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger
Date and time of preparation: 17 September 2026, 13:33
Date and time of publication: 17 September 2026, 13:48
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