- AUD/JPY trades with a positive bias for the seventh straight day amid a combination of supporting factors.
- The BoJ’s dovish rate hike continues to undermine the JPY, while the RBA’s hawkish tilt benefits the AUD.
- Intervention fears might cap spot prices amid a mixed technical setup, warranting some caution for bulls.
The AUD/JPY cross attracts fresh buyers following a modest Asian session dip to the 111.80 area on Tuesday and turns positive for the seventh consecutive day. Spot prices, however, remain below last week’s swing high and currently trade around the 112.15-112.20 region, up nearly 0.15% for the day.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues with its relative underperformance on the back of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) surprisingly dovish decision last Friday. The Australian Dollar (AUD), on the other hand, draws support from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock’s hawkish remarks and turns out to be another factor acting as a tailwind for the AUD/JPY cross. That said, JPY intervention fears might hold back traders from placing fresh bullish bets on the currency pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices hold marginally above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 112.16, which lends a tentative constructive tone. The AUD/JPY cross, however, remains capped beneath a dense Fibonacci stack – the 50.0% retracement at 112.34 and the 61.8% level at 112.96. This highlights the nearby overhead supply and further warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of a well-established uptrend witnessed over the past week or so.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 52, together suggesting modest recovering momentum rather than a decisive trend shift. Hence, any further move up is likely to face initial resistance at the 50.0% retracement at 112.34. This is followed by the 61.8% level at 112.96 and then 113.85 at the 78.6% retracement before the cycle high zone near 114.99.
On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 100-day EMA at 112.16, with further cushions at the 38.2% Fibo. level at 111.71 and the 23.6% retracement at 110.94. A deeper slide would expose the structural anchor of the current move around 109.68.
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