Soybean futures remain under pressure despite US ending stocks coming in below both last year’s level and trade expectations. November soybeans are trading around $12.93 per bushel, while January and March contracts remain above $13 as traders balance tighter old-crop inventories against harvest pressure, weaker corn prices and the need for stronger export demand.

The latest USDA stocks data shows 315 million bushels of soybeans remaining at the end of the 2025/26 marketing year, 10 million bushels below the previous year and 6 million below expectations. However, the market has so far failed to translate that tighter balance into sustained upside momentum.

Market Snapshot

Market Factor	Current Situation	What Traders Are Watching
November 2026 soybeans	$12.93/bu, down 4¾¢	Harvest pressure and demand
January 2027 soybeans	$13.0925/bu, down 3½¢	Forward export demand
March 2027 soybeans	$13.185/bu, down 3¢	New-crop balance
US soybean stocks	315M bushels	Tightness versus expectations
Private export sale	105,000 MT	Whether additional sales follow
Expected weekly exports	850K–1.0M MT	Strength of international demand
August crush expectation	210.5M bushels	Domestic processing demand
Soybean oil stocks	~1.774B lbs expected	Biofuel and vegetable-oil demand

Current Soybean Price Action

Soybean futures are struggling to build on the tighter stocks report.

November soybeans declined 4¾ cents to $12.93, while January fell 3½ cents to $13.0925. March futures slipped 3 cents to $13.185.

The national average cash soybean price also moved lower to approximately $12.395 per bushel.

Soymeal futures declined between $1.80 and $2.30, while soybean oil was comparatively stable, ranging from unchanged to 16 points lower.

The weakness across soybeans and soymeal indicates that traders remain focused on near-term supply availability and demand confirmation rather than simply reacting to the tighter old-crop stocks figure.

US Soybean Stocks Provide Fundamental Support

USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report showed approximately 315 million bushels of soybeans remaining at the end of August.

That is:

• 10 million bushels below the previous year
• 6 million bushels below trade expectations of 321 million bushels

The number therefore represents a modestly tighter ending balance than the market anticipated.

This should provide underlying support to the soybean market, particularly if export demand accelerates.

However, the market is now moving into a period when the incoming harvest becomes increasingly important. A tight old-crop balance does not necessarily translate into a sustained shortage if the new crop provides ample supply.

Export Demand Becomes the Key Test

USDA has already reported a private sale of 105,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations.

The next major demand test will be weekly export sales.

Trade expectations are currently centred around 850,000 to 1 million metric tons of soybean bookings.

A result near or above the upper end of that range would provide evidence that international buyers are actively securing US supplies.

A weaker result would reinforce concerns that current prices are not yet low enough to generate sustained export acceleration.

The export market is therefore becoming increasingly important as traders look beyond the old-crop stocks number.

Soybean Crush Outlook

USDA’s monthly Fats & Oils data will provide another important demand signal.

The market is looking for approximately 210.5 million bushels of soybeans crushed during August.

A strong crush figure would indicate continued domestic demand for soybean meal and soybean oil.

That would be particularly significant because soybean processing provides two separate demand channels:

• Soymeal for livestock feed
• Soybean oil for food, industrial and biofuel applications

Stronger crush activity could therefore help absorb soybean supplies even if export demand remains uneven.

Soybean Oil and Soymeal Markets

Soymeal futures are currently under pressure alongside soybeans, with losses of approximately $1.80 to $2.30.

Soybean oil is holding up better, with futures ranging from unchanged to 16 points lower.

The relative performance of the two products will remain important for processor margins and overall soybean demand.

If soybean-oil demand strengthens, particularly through biofuel-related consumption, crushers could have greater incentive to maintain high processing rates.

Conversely, weaker meal demand could place pressure on crush margins and reduce the pace of processing.

Bullish Sentiment

1. US soybean stocks are below expectations
The 315 million-bushel stocks figure is tighter than both last year’s level and the market forecast.

2. Private export demand remains active
A fresh 105,000 MT sale demonstrates that buyers continue to secure US soybeans.

3. Weekly exports could provide a catalyst
Bookings near or above 1 MMT would strengthen evidence of robust international demand.

4. Domestic crush demand remains substantial
Expected August crush of 210.5 million bushels points to continued processing demand.

5. Soybean oil provides an additional demand channel
Strong vegetable-oil and biofuel demand could support soybean processing even when meal demand is softer.

Bearish Sentiment

1. Futures are failing to rally on tighter stocks
The market’s reaction suggests that traders remain focused on incoming supply and demand risks.

2. Harvest pressure can limit upside momentum
New-crop availability is becoming increasingly important as the marketing year progresses.

3. Soymeal prices remain weak
Lower meal prices can weigh on processor economics if feed demand does not improve.

4. Corn weakness is spilling into soybeans
Broad agricultural selling pressure is limiting the ability of soybeans to respond positively to supportive fundamentals.

5. Export demand still needs confirmation
The private sale is supportive, but sustained weekly sales are required to establish a stronger demand trend.

Soybean Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching

The soybean market is approaching an important test around the $13-per-bushel area.

The underlying stocks data is supportive, but prices need stronger confirmation from exports and domestic crush activity before a sustained move higher can develop.

A combination of weekly export sales close to or above 1 MMT and a strong crush figure would strengthen the demand side of the balance sheet.

If export sales disappoint and harvest supplies remain readily available, the market could continue to trade under pressure despite the tighter old-crop stocks figure.

The next directional move is therefore likely to depend on whether demand can absorb incoming US supplies at current price levels.

Supply Outlook

The immediate supply picture is transitioning from old-crop tightness toward new-crop availability.

The 315 million-bushel ending-stock figure confirms that the previous marketing year finished with relatively tight inventories.

However, traders are increasingly focused on the size and quality of the incoming US soybean crop.

Harvest progress, yields and weather during the final stages of the growing season will determine how quickly new supplies become available.

Any evidence of lower-than-expected production potential could strengthen the impact of the tight old-crop balance.

Demand Outlook

Demand remains the most important potential source of upside momentum.

USDA export sales will show whether international buyers are increasing purchases at current prices, while the Fats & Oils report will provide a clearer indication of domestic crush demand.

China and other major importers remain critical to the global soybean balance.

A combination of stronger exports and sustained domestic processing would tighten the forward balance and provide a more durable foundation for higher prices.

Currency Hedger View

For international soybean traders and physical buyers, the US dollar remains an important part of the demand equation.

US soybean prices are ultimately translated into local currencies for overseas buyers. A stronger dollar can reduce purchasing power and make US-origin supplies less competitive, while a softer dollar can improve export competitiveness.

Businesses exposed to soybean purchases should therefore monitor the relationship between soybean futures, US dollar movements and international commodity demand.

The currency component can materially change the effective cost of a physical soybean transaction even when the underlying futures price remains relatively stable.

Coming Sessions

The next market catalysts will centre on demand and processing data.

Traders will be watching:

• US weekly soybean export sales
• Soybean meal export demand
• August US soybean crush
• Soybean oil stocks
• Harvest progress and yield reports
• Chinese soybean demand
• US dollar movements
• Corn and broader grain-market direction

A combination of strong export sales and solid crush data could allow soybeans to recover despite harvest pressure.

If demand remains below expectations while new-crop supplies become increasingly available, the market could continue to struggle to convert tighter old-crop stocks into sustained price gains.

Today Markets View

Soybeans are showing an important divergence between fundamentals and price action. US stocks finished the previous marketing year tighter than expected, while a fresh private export sale provides evidence of continued demand.

Yet futures remain lower because traders are already looking beyond the old-crop balance toward incoming harvest supplies and the strength of export and crush demand.

The next move will therefore depend less on the headline stocks number and more on whether international buyers and domestic processors can absorb available supplies at current prices.

Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets

Currency Hedger

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General market information and analysis provided by Octalas Group on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.