European natural gas prices fell below €81/MWh on Monday, having risen to a four-week high earlier as increased tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and escalating regional tensions heightened concerns over the security of LNG supplies. The strait handles around 20% of global LNG trade before the war. Despite a steady rise in European gas inventories in recent weeks, storage facilities are around 73% full, still below year-ago levels. However, this recovery could be threatened by forecasts of cooler autumn temperatures, which may lead to an earlier start to the heating season and increase gas consumption. Last week, European gas network operators said the system was flexible enough to meet winter demand but warned that limited supplies could push storage below 30% by winter’s end, increasing vulnerability to late-season cold snaps. Meanwhile, President Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an energy ceasefire effective immediately, easing some concerns across the energy market.