• EUR/JPY may fall toward the lower boundary of the descending channel around 176.10.
• The 14-day Relative Strength Index hovers near 36, indicating sustained bearish sentiment.
• The primary resistance lies at the nine-day EMA at 177.66.

EUR/JPY gains ground for the third successive day, trading around 177.40 during Asian hours on Monday. Liquidity would be thin, although it is the best opportunity for ‘Yentervention’.

Technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the currency cross is moving downward within the descending channel pattern, suggesting an ongoing bearish bias.

The EUR/JPY cross is retaining a bearish near-term tone as it holds under both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The short-term EMA trading below price only marginally reinforces the idea of overhead supply, while the subdued 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 36 suggests weak upside momentum after the recent pullback.

The EUR/JPY cross faces key technical levels to the downside, with initial support located at the lower boundary of its descending channel around 176.10. A break below this level brings into focus the 11-month low of 175.70, which was recorded in November 2025. If selling pressure intensifies and pushes the pair below this confluence support zone, further declines could expose the 14-month low at 169.72.

On the upside, the immediate primary barrier is expected at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 177.66, followed by the 50-day EMA at 180.63. A decisive move above these key moving averages would provide bullish momentum, paving the way for the cross to approach the upper boundary of the descending channel near 184.00, with the all-time high of 187.95 (set on April 17) serving as the ultimate target.

Japanese flows seen as unlikely driver of recent French bond volatility

Analysts at Commerzbank highlight that Japanese investors have been net sellers of long-term French bonds over the past year, noting that “cumulative net purchases since early 2014 have declined noticeably since the pandemic.” However, they stress that these investors “have already returned as buyers over the past three months,” leading Commerzbank to conclude that “it therefore appears unlikely that Japanese investors were responsible for, or even materially contributed to, the recent dislocations in the French bond market.”