Cocoa futures are heading into Monday’s trading session under pressure after both New York and London contracts fell to fresh five-week lows on Friday before recovering from their weakest levels. The final settlements were mixed, with New York cocoa closing lower while London cocoa managed a modest gain.

December 2026 ICE New York cocoa (CCZ26) closed down 26 points, or 0.50%, while December 2026 ICE London cocoa No. 7 (CAZ26) finished 19 points higher, gaining 0.49%.

The immediate market picture remains bearish, with ICE cocoa inventories climbing to their highest level in two and a half years. Increased Nigerian exports and concerns that a weaker Brazilian real could encourage additional exporter selling are also weighing on prices.

However, the medium-term outlook remains more complicated. Falling cocoa arrivals in Ivory Coast, weaker crop prospects across West Africa and forecasts for an El Niño-related global production deficit are providing underlying support.

Monday’s opening session will test whether the recent selling pressure continues or whether the supply concerns that have supported cocoa prices begin to attract renewed buying interest.

Cocoa Market Snapshot

Market indicator	Latest reading
December 2026 NY Cocoa (CCZ26)	-26 points (-0.50%)
December 2026 London Cocoa (CAZ26)	+19 points (+0.49%)
NY and London Recent Lows	5-week lows
ICE Cocoa Inventories	3,751,670 bags
Inventory Comparison	2.5-year high
Nigeria September Cocoa Exports	19,343 tonnes
Nigerian Export Growth	+33% year-on-year
Ivory Coast Weekly Port Arrivals	50,705 MT
Ivory Coast Season-to-Date Arrivals	173,158 MT
Ivory Coast Season-to-Date Change	-43% year-on-year
StoneX 2026/27 Production Forecast	4.74 MMT
StoneX 2026/27 Market Balance	64,000 MT deficit
North American Q3 Grindings	109,978 MT
Asian Q3 Grindings	233,767 MT
European Q3 Grindings	348,215 MT

Friday’s Cocoa Close: New York Weakens as London Recovers

Cocoa futures fell to fresh five-week lows on Friday, although both markets recovered from their weakest levels before the close.

December 2026 New York cocoa settled 26 points lower, down 0.50%. London December cocoa finished 19 points higher, gaining 0.49%, after erasing its earlier losses.

The contrasting performance reflects different currency influences across the two markets. A decline in the British pound to a one-week low helped support London cocoa by making sterling-priced cocoa cheaper in dollar terms and encouraging short covering.

However, the broader trend remains negative. Both markets have been moving lower over the past three weeks as rising exchange inventories and the prospect of increased exporter selling weigh on sentiment.

The most significant development is the continued accumulation of ICE cocoa inventories, which reached 3,751,670 bags on Friday. This represents a two-and-a-half-year high and is easing immediate concerns about available exchange-deliverable supplies.

What Traders Should Watch at Monday’s Open

Monday’s opening session will be important in determining whether cocoa futures extend their three-week decline or begin to stabilise following Friday’s recovery from session lows.

New York cocoa’s 0.50% decline leaves the market vulnerable to further selling, particularly while exchange inventories continue to increase.

London cocoa’s 0.49% advance provides a more constructive signal, although the recovery was partly driven by sterling weakness and short covering rather than a clear improvement in the underlying supply picture.

Three factors are likely to influence early trading:

1. ICE inventory growth: Stocks reaching 3,751,670 bags represent a significant increase in available exchange inventories and are reducing immediate supply concerns.
2. Brazilian real weakness: Continued currency depreciation could encourage Brazilian exporters to sell more cocoa into the international market.
3. West African supply concerns: Lower Ivory Coast arrivals and weaker early crop assessments could limit further downside if traders begin to focus on the next harvest outlook.

The market therefore enters Monday with conflicting influences. Near-term inventory growth is bearish, while deteriorating crop prospects and potential weather disruption remain supportive over a longer horizon.

ICE Cocoa Inventories Reach a 2.5-Year High

Rising ICE cocoa inventories are one of the most important bearish developments currently affecting the market.

Exchange inventories have increased steadily since the beginning of the year, reaching 3,751,670 bags on Friday. This represents the highest level in two and a half years.

The increase is easing concerns about immediate supply availability and providing additional pressure on futures.

Higher inventories can reduce the urgency among buyers to secure nearby supplies, particularly when combined with increased export availability from producing countries.

For Monday, traders will be watching whether inventory growth continues and whether the market interprets the latest stock levels as evidence of a more comfortable supply position.

The inventory trend is particularly important because it contrasts with the longer-term concerns about West African production and the potential impact of El Niño.

Brazilian Real Weakness Could Increase Cocoa Export Selling

The Brazilian real fell to a 10.25-month low against the US dollar last Monday, following President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s unexpected victory in the presidential election.

A weaker real can encourage Brazilian cocoa exporters to increase international sales because dollar-denominated revenues translate into more local currency.

This creates a potentially bearish influence for global cocoa prices, particularly if exporters respond to the currency movement by accelerating sales.

Brazil is a smaller participant in the global cocoa market than West African producers and Ecuador, but it remains the world’s seventh-largest cocoa producer, accounting for approximately 4–5% of global production according to ICCO estimates.

Although Brazil’s share is relatively modest, changes in exporter selling can still influence international supply expectations.

The Brazilian currency will therefore remain an important consideration as traders assess whether additional export volumes could reach the market.

Nigerian Cocoa Exports Increase 33%

Nigeria is providing another source of near-term supply pressure.

September cocoa-bean exports increased by 33% year-on-year to 19,343 tonnes, with higher cocoa prices reportedly encouraging exporters to sell.

The increase adds to the evidence that cocoa availability from some producing countries is improving, even as concerns persist about the next West African harvest.

The market will be assessing whether higher Nigerian exports represent a sustained improvement in supply availability or a temporary response to elevated prices.

For Monday, the latest export figures reinforce the bearish argument that additional cocoa could enter international markets while ICE inventories remain elevated.

Ivory Coast Cocoa Arrivals Fall Sharply

Despite rising exchange inventories, cocoa supply from Ivory Coast is showing signs of weakness.

Government data showed that farmers delivered 50,705 metric tonnes of cocoa to ports during the week ended November 1, significantly below the 89,621 tonnes recorded during the comparable week last year.

For the marketing season from October 1 through November 1, cumulative port arrivals declined by 43% year-on-year to 173,158 tonnes, compared with 304,840 tonnes during the corresponding period last year.

This reduction is an important supportive factor for cocoa prices.

Ivory Coast is the world’s largest cocoa producer, and changes in its port arrivals provide an important indication of the volume of beans entering the international supply chain.

The decline in arrivals contrasts with the increase in ICE inventories and suggests that the market is dealing with different supply signals across the physical and exchange markets.

It is also important to note that Ivory Coast moved its 2026/27 marketing year forward by one month, beginning on September 1. The reported international marketing-year shipment figures continue to be presented using the October 1 starting point.

Global Cocoa Demand: Asia and Europe Offset North American Weakness

Recent cocoa grinding figures show a mixed demand picture across the major consuming regions.

The National Confectioners Association reported that North American Q3 cocoa grindings fell by 2.5% year-on-year to 109,978 metric tonnes. The result was weaker than expectations for no change.

However, Asian cocoa demand was considerably stronger.

The Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q3 grindings increased by a record 29% year-on-year to 233,767 tonnes, significantly exceeding expectations for 15% growth.

European demand also surprised positively. The European Cocoa Association reported that Q3 grindings increased by 3.2% to 348,215 tonnes, compared with expectations for a 3.9% year-on-year decline.

The figures suggest that demand conditions remain uneven.

North American processing is showing weakness, but the strong Asian increase and better-than-expected European result provide evidence that demand has not deteriorated uniformly across the global market.

For cocoa traders, the next question is whether stronger Asian and European processing can offset the weakness in North America and support prices as the market moves through the new season.

El Niño Threatens Future Cocoa Production

Weather remains one of the most significant longer-term risks to global cocoa supply.

The US Climate Prediction Center has indicated that the El Niño pattern emerging across the equatorial Pacific could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years.

El Niño typically brings warmer and drier conditions to parts of West Africa, potentially reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees and affecting yields.

Ivory Coast and Ghana are particularly important to this outlook because of their dominant positions in global cocoa production.

If rainfall disruption becomes more severe, the resulting impact on tree development and crop quality could tighten global supplies later in the season.

This risk is already being reflected in some industry forecasts, with expectations for lower production in several major producing countries.

Ivory Coast Crop Outlook Raises Concerns for 2026/27

Early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop are pointing towards weaker-than-average cherelle formation, an early stage of pod development.

The initial assessments indicate poor pod development and an average production estimate of approximately 1.8 million tonnes for the season beginning in September.

This would represent an 18% decline from approximately 2.2 million tonnes in 2025/26.

Cloudy weather and limited sunshine in Ivory Coast and Ghana have also contributed to concerns about crop quality, with conditions allowing black pod disease to spread and affect cocoa beans.

The main harvest has begun, but the early assessments suggest that production could be significantly lower than the previous season.

If these forecasts are confirmed, reduced West African output could become a major supportive factor for cocoa prices, particularly if demand remains resilient.

Ghana Cocoa Production Forecasts Point to Lower Output

Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, is also facing concerns about its next crop.

On August 20, Ghana’s Cocoa Board estimated that 2026/27 production could reach 650,000 metric tonnes, down 13% from 750,000 tonnes in 2025/26.

The country’s regulator, COCOBOD, previously projected an even weaker production range of 450,000 to 550,000 tonnes for 2026/27.

The lower forecast reflects the combined effects of swollen shoot disease, ageing cocoa farms and the potential impact of adverse El Niño weather conditions.

However, Ghana’s production during the current marketing year has been stronger.

On August 26, the cocoa board reported that 750,000 tonnes had been harvested during the 2025/26 season, an increase of 25.6% from 597,000 tonnes in 2024/25.

This creates an important distinction between current and future supply. Production has improved in the current season, but the outlook for 2026/27 remains significantly weaker.

StoneX Forecasts 2026/27 Global Cocoa Deficit

StoneX has revised its global cocoa balance outlook, forecasting a deficit of 64,000 metric tonnes in 2026/27.

This represents a significant change from its previous forecast of a 25,000-tonne surplus.

The revised outlook reflects expectations that El Niño-related disruption will reduce production in Indonesia, Ivory Coast and Ecuador.

StoneX forecasts that global cocoa production will decline by 9.6% in 2026/27 to 4.74 million metric tonnes.

However, the projected deficit follows an estimated surplus of 494,000 tonnes during 2025/26.

This suggests that the global cocoa market could move from a substantial surplus into a deficit within successive seasons.

For traders, this is a potentially important medium-term development. The current increase in inventories is weighing on prices, but a sharp reduction in future production could eventually change the market balance.

Bullish Cocoa Market Factors

1. Falling Ivory Coast arrivals: Season-to-date port arrivals declined 43% year-on-year to 173,158 tonnes.
2. Weaker West African crop outlook: Early assessments point to lower Ivory Coast and Ghana production in 2026/27.
3. El Niño weather risks: Potentially severe weather disruption could reduce yields across major cocoa-producing regions.
4. StoneX deficit forecast: The 2026/27 outlook has shifted from a 25,000-tonne surplus to a 64,000-tonne deficit.
5. Strong Asian demand: Q3 cocoa grindings increased by a record 29% year-on-year.
6. Stronger European processing: European Q3 grindings increased by 3.2%, exceeding expectations.

Bearish Cocoa Market Factors

1. Rising ICE inventories: Stocks reached 3,751,670 bags, the highest level in two and a half years.
2. Brazilian real weakness: Currency depreciation could encourage exporters to increase dollar-denominated cocoa sales.
3. Higher Nigerian exports: September cocoa-bean exports increased 33% year-on-year to 19,343 tonnes.
4. North American demand weakness: Q3 grindings declined 2.5% year-on-year.
5. Recent price momentum: Both New York and London cocoa have fallen to fresh five-week lows.
6. Previous season surplus: StoneX estimates that the 2025/26 market recorded a surplus of 494,000 tonnes.

Cocoa Price Forecast: What to Expect on Monday

Cocoa futures enter Monday with a cautious short-term outlook following Friday’s fresh five-week lows.

New York December cocoa’s 0.50% decline indicates that sellers remain active, while the rise in ICE inventories provides a clear fundamental reason for the market’s recent weakness.

London’s 0.49% recovery offers a more positive signal, although the move was supported by sterling weakness and short covering.

Bearish scenario: Continued inventory growth, additional Nigerian exports and increased Brazilian exporter selling could maintain downward pressure. If both markets struggle to recover from Friday’s lows, the three-week decline could extend.

Recovery scenario: Further evidence of falling Ivory Coast arrivals, weaker West African crop development and El Niño-related production risks could encourage buyers to return. London cocoa’s positive close may provide an initial indication of renewed buying interest, provided the recovery continues beyond currency-driven short covering.

The key issue is whether traders continue to prioritise current inventory availability or begin to price in the projected reduction in global production for 2026/27.

Cocoa Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions

Cocoa’s immediate outlook remains under pressure, but the longer-term supply picture is becoming increasingly uncertain.

The rise in ICE inventories to a two-and-a-half-year high is easing near-term supply concerns, while stronger Nigerian exports and the weaker Brazilian real could increase the availability of cocoa in international markets.

However, Ivory Coast arrivals have declined sharply, early crop assessments point towards lower production in both Ivory Coast and Ghana, and StoneX now expects the global market to move into a deficit during 2026/27.

Demand is also mixed rather than uniformly weak, with record growth in Asian grindings and stronger-than-expected European processing offsetting the decline in North America.

For traders, Monday’s opening direction will help establish whether the recent decline has further room to run or whether the market is beginning to stabilise ahead of the next round of supply and crop developments.

Today Markets Analysis

Cocoa is presenting two very different market narratives.

In the near term, rising exchange inventories, increased Nigerian exports and the potential for additional Brazilian selling are weighing on futures. These developments have helped push both New York and London prices to fresh five-week lows.

However, the physical supply outlook from West Africa is becoming more concerning. Ivory Coast arrivals are substantially below last year’s levels, while early crop assessments in Ivory Coast and Ghana suggest that the next season could produce significantly less cocoa.

The revised StoneX forecast for a 64,000-tonne deficit in 2026/27 adds another important dimension to the outlook.

The market’s direction will depend on whether immediate inventory availability continues to dominate sentiment or whether traders begin to focus more heavily on future production risks.

Today Markets will be monitoring Monday’s opening price action, ICE inventory developments, West African port arrivals, currency movements and any further changes to global cocoa production forecasts.

Currency Hedger View

Currency movements are playing an important role in cocoa export economics.

The weaker Brazilian real can encourage Brazilian exporters to sell cocoa internationally because dollar-denominated revenues translate into more local currency. This can increase export incentives and potentially add to global supply.

Sterling weakness has also influenced London cocoa, helping to make sterling-priced cocoa cheaper in dollar terms and contributing to Friday’s short-covering recovery.

For cocoa importers, manufacturers and international commodity businesses, movements in GBP/USD, USD/BRL and other currency pairs can affect procurement costs and transaction margins independently of changes in the underlying cocoa market.

Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange developments and helps businesses understand and manage currency exposure across international payments and commodity-related transactions.

Manage your currency exposure: Open a Currency Hedger account or visit currencyhedger.com.

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Market analysis by Today Markets, with currency and international payments commentary from Currency Hedger.

Risk Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading recommendations or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Futures and commodities trading involve substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Market prices and conditions can change rapidly.