Coffee futures finished Friday higher, recovering from early-session losses as tight certified arabica inventories and concerns over future production provided support. December 2026 ICE New York arabica coffee (KCZ26) closed up 2.85 points, or 1.03%, while January 2027 ICE London robusta (RMF27) gained 29 points, or 0.89%.
The recovery came despite continued pressure from expectations of larger Brazilian and Vietnamese coffee supplies. Brazilian coffee arrivals at ICE warehouses are increasing, while Vietnam’s export performance remains strong. However, much of the Brazilian coffee awaiting grading has not yet been reflected in certified exchange stocks, keeping the immediate arabica supply picture relatively tight.
Robusta faces a different balance of influences. India’s revised production forecast and substantial speculative short positioning provide potential support, while higher Vietnamese exports and expectations of improved global production remain bearish.
As trading resumes on Monday, attention will focus on whether Friday’s recovery can extend or whether expectations of larger global supplies continue to limit the market.
Coffee Market Snapshot
| Market indicator | Latest reading |
|---|---|
| December 2026 NY Arabica (KCZ26) | +2.85 (+1.03%) |
| January 2027 London Robusta (RMF27) | +29 (+0.89%) |
| ICE Arabica Inventories | 220,379 bags |
| Arabica Inventory Comparison | 7-week low |
| Previous 27-year Low | 217,646 bags |
| Brazilian Coffee Awaiting ICE Grading | 62,849 bags |
| ICE Brazilian Coffee Inventories | 93,683 bags |
| ICE Robusta Inventories | 6,702 lots |
| Recent Robusta Inventory High | 6,809 lots |
| India 2026/27 Production Estimate | 380,000 MT |
| Vietnam October Coffee Exports | 114,000 MT |
| Vietnam October Export Growth | +61% year-on-year |
| Brazil September Coffee Exports | 236,000 MT |
| Brazil 2026 Coffee Production Forecast | 67.6 million bags |
| ICO 2025/26 Global Production | 183.6 million bags |
| ICO 2025/26 Global Surplus | 3 million bags |
| USDA 2026/27 Global Production Forecast | 189.7 million bags |
Friday’s Coffee Close: Arabica and Robusta Recover
Coffee futures recovered from early losses on Friday, with both arabica and robusta finishing the session higher.
December 2026 New York arabica closed at a gain of 2.85 points, or 1.03%, recovering from a fresh five-week low.
January 2027 London robusta advanced 29 points, or 0.89%, as buyers returned following the earlier weakness.
The positive settlements suggest that lower prices attracted buying interest, particularly as tight arabica inventories continue to provide support.
However, the broader supply outlook remains a challenge. Brazil’s coffee exports are increasing, Vietnamese shipments remain strong and forecasts for global production point towards a potentially substantial supply recovery.
The market therefore enters Monday with a short-term recovery in prices but continuing uncertainty over the scale of available coffee supplies.
What Traders Should Watch at Monday’s Open
The immediate question is whether Friday’s rebound represents the beginning of a more sustained recovery or simply a temporary pause in the recent selling pressure.
Arabica will remain particularly sensitive to ICE certified inventory levels. Stocks are close to their 27-year low, and Brazilian coffee awaiting grading has not yet been added in significant quantities to certified inventories.
Robusta traders will be watching India’s lower production estimate and the possibility of short covering, particularly after funds increased their net-short position to its highest level in almost four years.
Three factors are likely to influence early trading:
- Tight arabica inventories: Certified stocks of 220,379 bags remain close to the 27-year low of 217,646 bags.
- Brazilian supply arrivals: The volume of Brazilian coffee awaiting grading at ICE warehouses has reached 62,849 bags, creating the possibility of higher certified stocks.
- Robusta speculative positioning: Funds hold 16,968 net-short contracts, potentially increasing the impact of any short-covering rally.
The market will also be monitoring developments in Brazil and Vietnam, where rainfall and growing conditions could influence the next production cycle.
ICE Arabica Inventories Remain Near Historic Lows
Tight certified arabica inventories continue to provide one of the strongest supportive factors for coffee prices.
ICE arabica stocks fell to 220,379 bags on Tuesday, their lowest level in seven weeks and only modestly above the 27-year low of 217,646 bags recorded on September 15.
Although Brazilian coffee has been arriving at ICE warehouses, much of this supply has not yet appeared in certified inventory figures.
As coffee passes the grading process, it can be added to exchange-certified stocks. However, grading can take one to two weeks or longer when volumes are elevated.
This creates an important distinction between coffee physically arriving at warehouses and coffee becoming available as certified exchange inventory.
For Monday, traders will be watching whether certified arabica stocks begin to increase as the current grading backlog is processed.
A sustained increase could ease immediate supply concerns and place renewed pressure on arabica prices. Continued tightness, however, could support another recovery.
Brazilian Coffee Arrivals Increase as Grading Backlog Builds
Expectations of stronger Brazilian exports have weighed on coffee prices, particularly as more coffee enters the ICE warehouse system.
ICE reported that 62,849 bags of Brazilian coffee were awaiting grading on Friday, the highest level in seven weeks.
Brazilian coffee inventories at ICE warehouses have also increased to 93,683 bags, their highest level in approximately 9.75 months.
The potential increase in certified stocks is an important bearish consideration for arabica.
If the grading process converts a significant proportion of the waiting coffee into certified inventory, the current tightness in exchange stocks could begin to ease.
However, the timing and volume of those additions remain important. Until the coffee is graded and included in certified stocks, the immediate exchange inventory position remains relatively tight.
Robusta Supported by India’s Lower Production Forecast
Robusta coffee has received some support from India’s revised 2026/27 production outlook.
India’s Coffee Board reduced its production estimate to 380,000 metric tonnes from its previous forecast of 400,000 tonnes, representing a 5% reduction.
The revision reflects below-normal monsoon rainfall.
India is the world’s fifth-largest robusta coffee producer, making changes to its production outlook relevant to the international market.
A lower production forecast could tighten available robusta supplies, particularly if output in other producing countries also encounters weather-related difficulties.
The revised Indian estimate therefore provides a supportive counterweight to the increase in Vietnamese exports and expectations of stronger global production.
Robusta Short Positions Create Potential for a Short-Covering Rally
Speculative positioning is another important factor for robusta as the market approaches Monday.
The latest weekly Commitment of Traders report showed that funds increased their robusta coffee short positions by 4,767 contracts during the week ended November 3.
Their net-short position consequently reached 16,968 contracts, the highest level in almost four years.
A substantial net-short position can create the conditions for a sharp recovery if prices begin moving higher and traders rush to close bearish positions.
This does not guarantee a rally, but it means that any positive supply development or unexpected change in market sentiment could have an amplified effect on prices.
Friday’s 0.89% gain provides an early indication of renewed buying interest. Traders will be watching whether this develops into further short covering during Monday’s session.
Vietnam Coffee Exports Increase Sharply
Higher Vietnamese exports remain one of the most significant bearish influences on robusta prices.
Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that October coffee exports increased by 61% year-on-year to 114,000 metric tonnes.
Total exports between January and October 2026 rose by 18.8% to 1.57 million tonnes.
Vietnam’s full-year 2025 coffee exports also increased by 17.5% to 1.58 million tonnes.
Production expectations are also positive. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee crop is projected to increase by 6% year-on-year to a four-year high of 1.76 million tonnes, equivalent to approximately 29.4 million bags.
As the world’s largest robusta producer, Vietnam’s export and production performance has a significant influence on the global supply outlook.
The continued increase in shipments is therefore likely to remain a source of pressure for robusta futures.
Brazil Weather and the 2026/27 Arabica Crop
Brazil’s growing conditions are providing another important influence on the arabica market.
Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais received 29.6 millimetres of rainfall during the week ended October 25, equivalent to 82% of its historical average.
Minas Gerais is Brazil’s principal arabica-producing region, and rainfall during the flowering stage is particularly important for the development of the next crop.
Above-normal rainfall during this critical period could improve soil moisture and support the 2026/27 harvest, potentially increasing future arabica availability.
This is a bearish consideration for prices, particularly when combined with expectations of higher Brazilian production.
However, the longer-term weather outlook remains uncertain because a developing Super-El Niño could disrupt rainfall patterns and create drought risks across major coffee-producing regions.
El Niño Raises Longer-Term Coffee Production Risks
Despite favourable growing conditions in parts of Brazil and Vietnam, weather remains a significant longer-term risk.
The developing Super-El Niño pattern could affect rainfall and temperatures across the world’s major coffee-producing regions.
Vietnam’s Agriculture Ministry warned on October 16 that the Central Highlands, the country’s largest coffee-growing region, could face an El Niño-related drought later this year and into early 2027.
In Brazil, weather disruption could also affect the development of the next crop.
This creates a conflicting outlook for the market. Current rainfall conditions are supporting crop development in both countries, but the potential for future drought could limit production and tighten supplies.
For traders, the timing and severity of any weather disruption will be important in determining whether the current bearish production outlook remains intact.
Brazil Coffee Production and Export Outlook
Larger Brazilian coffee supplies are weighing on prices.
Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported on October 6 that September coffee exports increased by more than 20% year-on-year to 236,000 metric tonnes.
Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, also raised its 2026 coffee production estimate on September 24 to 67.6 million bags from its previous forecast of 66.7 million bags.
The revised forecast includes a substantial increase in arabica production, alongside a reduction in robusta output.
| Brazil 2026 production | Forecast | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
| Total coffee | 67.6 million bags | Revised higher |
| Arabica | 48.21 million bags | +34.8% |
| Robusta | 19.39 million bags | -6.6% |
The expected increase in arabica production is particularly important because Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer.
If the production forecast is realised, additional Brazilian supplies could ease the tightness currently visible in ICE arabica inventories.
However, the reduction in robusta production offers a more supportive element for that market segment.
Colombia Coffee Production Falls
Colombia’s latest production and export figures provide a further supportive consideration for arabica.
The Colombian Coffee Federation reported that 2025/26 production fell 15% year-on-year to 12.65 million bags.
Exports also declined by 12% to 11.78 million bags.
Colombia is the world’s second-largest arabica producer, making the reduction in its output relevant to the global supply balance.
Lower Colombian production could partly offset the expected increase in Brazilian arabica output, although the overall market impact will depend on production developments across other origins.
Global Coffee Market: Record Production and Surplus Forecasts
The International Coffee Organization’s outlook remains a significant bearish influence.
On September 10, the ICO projected that global coffee production during 2025/26 would increase by 4.4% year-on-year to a record 183.6 million bags.
Global consumption was forecast to decline by 0.9% to 180.6 million bags.
The resulting balance points to a global surplus of approximately 3 million bags, the first surplus in five years.
The USDA’s July biannual forecast was also bearish.
It projected that global coffee production in 2026/27 would increase by 6.0%, or 10.8 million bags, to a record 189.7 million bags.
Global arabica production is expected to rise by 12% year-on-year, while robusta output is forecast to decline by 0.7%.
World ending stocks are projected to increase by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service also forecast a record Brazilian coffee crop of 71.9 million bags in 2026/27, representing a 14% annual increase.
These projections suggest that global supply could become more comfortable, although the final outcome will depend on weather, harvest performance and export availability.
Bullish Coffee Market Factors
- Tight arabica inventories: ICE arabica stocks remain close to a 27-year low.
- Lower Indian production forecast: India’s 2026/27 estimate has been reduced by 5% to 380,000 tonnes.
- Robusta short positioning: Funds hold 16,968 net-short contracts, potentially amplifying short covering.
- Colombian production decline: Output fell 15% year-on-year to 12.65 million bags.
- El Niño risks: Potential drought conditions in Brazil and Vietnam could threaten future production.
- Friday’s recovery: Both arabica and robusta finished the session higher after recovering from early losses.
Bearish Coffee Market Factors
- Rising Brazilian supply: Brazil’s 2026 production estimate has been raised to 67.6 million bags.
- Higher Brazilian exports: September shipments increased by more than 20% year-on-year to 236,000 tonnes.
- Vietnamese export growth: October exports increased 61% year-on-year to 114,000 tonnes.
- Growing robusta inventories: ICE robusta stocks reached a 1.25-year high of 6,809 lots before easing to 6,702.
- Potential arabica inventory increase: Brazilian coffee awaiting ICE grading could eventually add to certified stocks.
- Global surplus outlook: The ICO forecasts a 3-million-bag surplus for 2025/26, while the USDA expects record global production in 2026/27.
Coffee Price Forecast: What to Expect on Monday
Coffee futures enter Monday with a more constructive short-term price signal following Friday’s recovery, but the broader supply outlook remains mixed.
Arabica’s immediate support comes from certified inventories remaining close to historic lows. The key risk is that Brazilian coffee awaiting grading could gradually enter the ICE warehouse system, increasing available certified stocks.
Arabica bullish scenario: Continued inventory tightness and stronger buying interest could extend Friday’s recovery, particularly if the grading process fails to produce a significant increase in certified stocks.
Arabica bearish scenario: A substantial addition to ICE certified inventories, combined with expectations for a larger Brazilian crop, could renew selling pressure.
For robusta, the reduced Indian production estimate and substantial speculative short positioning provide potential support.
Robusta bullish scenario: Continued short covering, combined with concerns about Indian production and future weather risks, could strengthen the recovery.
Robusta bearish scenario: Strong Vietnamese exports, rising inventory availability and expectations of improved global production could limit further gains.
The market will also be monitoring Brazil’s rainfall conditions and the potential impact of El Niño on the next production cycle.
Coffee Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions
Coffee enters the new week with short-term buying interest returning, but longer-term fundamentals remain divided.
Arabica is supported by extremely tight certified inventories, although the growing volume of Brazilian coffee awaiting grading could eventually ease that constraint.
Robusta has additional support from India’s lower production estimate and substantial speculative short positioning, but higher Vietnamese exports and rising inventory levels remain bearish.
The wider global outlook continues to point towards higher production and a potential surplus, particularly as Brazil’s arabica crop is expected to increase substantially.
For traders, Monday’s opening direction will help determine whether Friday’s gains represent the start of a stronger recovery or a temporary rebound within the wider downward trend.
Today Markets Analysis
Coffee is currently being influenced by two competing forces: tight immediate inventories and expectations of larger future production.
Arabica’s low certified stock level provides a clear reason for prices to remain sensitive to any supply disruption. However, the arrival of Brazilian coffee at ICE warehouses creates the possibility of a gradual improvement in exchange availability.
Robusta faces a different balance. India’s lower production estimate and substantial fund short positioning create the potential for a sharper recovery, while strong Vietnamese exports continue to weigh on the market.
The most important development for the coming sessions will be whether inventory growth and higher production forecasts begin to outweigh the immediate tightness in certified stocks.
Today Markets will be monitoring Monday’s opening price action, Brazilian coffee grading activity, Vietnamese export performance, India’s revised production outlook and the developing El Niño weather pattern.
Currency Hedger View
Currency movements remain particularly important for international coffee exporters and buyers.
A weaker Brazilian real can encourage exporters to sell dollar-denominated coffee into international markets because the resulting dollar revenue converts into more local currency. This can increase export incentives and add to global supply availability.
For coffee importers and roasters purchasing in US dollars, movements in their domestic currencies can also affect procurement costs independently of changes in arabica and robusta futures.
Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange developments and helps businesses understand and manage currency exposure across international payments and commodity-related transactions.
Manage your currency exposure: Open a Currency Hedger account or visit currencyhedger.com.
Market analysis by Today Markets, with currency and international payments commentary from Currency Hedger.
Risk Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading recommendations or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Futures and commodities trading involve substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Market prices and conditions can change rapidly.
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