ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that oil prices, including ICE Brent, started the week stronger after US strikes on Iran raised concerns over Persian Gulf supply. They highlight Strait of Hormuz flows and Russia’s extended diesel export ban as key factors supporting the oil complex.

Brent underpinned by Gulf tensions

“Oil prices started the week stronger following the first military strikes between the US and Iran in a month. ICE Brent briefly moved back above US$90/bbl in early morning Asia trading. The US struck Iranian launchers over the weekend amid suggestions that Iran was about to launch mines into the Strait of Hormuz.”

“Obviously, the key is whether this ignites further rounds of strikes from both sides, and whether it leaves shippers hesitant to navigate the Strait of Hormuz.”

“Oil producers in the region have grown more comfortable shuttling crude through the key chokepoint in recent weeks. Reports have 6-8m b/d transiting the strait, although we assume an average of 5m b/d. Further escalation could put these flows under renewed pressure.”

“Unsurprisingly, Russia announced over the weekend that it would extend its ban on diesel exports by another month until the end of September 2026. This move will only add to the supply stress facing the global diesel market amid disruptions from the Persian Gulf and Russia. The market is moving toward stronger demand.”