ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil remains supported as tensions between the US and Iran escalate in the Persian Gulf. They highlight continued flows through the Strait of Hormuz, aided by US Navy escorts, and unchanged OPEC+ quotas. Speculative net longs in ICE Brent have risen, while disruptions mean many producers stay below quota.

Persian Gulf tensions underpin crude

“The oil market remains well-supported with little sign of a peace between the US and Iran. The US struck several Iranian-linked tankers in response to Iran targeting US warships. Iran says it has also taken action against tankers navigating unauthorised routes, and now plans to enforce a new restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz — a move that could put additional vessels in the Gulf of Oman at risk.”

“Despite the escalation, oil continues to flow. The US energy secretary said oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz is averaging a little more than 9m b/d, made possible by US Navy escorts.”

“OPEC+ kept its output quotas unchanged for October, which comes as no surprise. The group announced increases this year, which fully unwind voluntary cuts of 1.65m b/d. However, given ongoing disruptions in the Persian Gulf, most members will produce well below their quota.”

“Given the recent flare-up between Iran and the US, it’s not surprising that speculators increased their net long in ICE Brent over the last reporting week. Speculators bought 37,837 lots to leave them with a net long of 261,435 lots as of last Tuesday. While fresh buying and short covering were relatively sizeable, most of the increase came from short covering.”

“While oil price action has been more modest with the latest developments in the Middle East, European gas prices have seen more upside. The TTF was trading almost 4% up in early morning trading today. Unfortunately, LNG has not been flowing out as much as crude oil, leaving the gas market increasingly vulnerable as we near the 2026/27 heating season.”