| This material is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any futures or options contract, and it does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or risk tolerance. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please see the full disclosures at the end of this piece. To get all the graphics for the full article, use the link at the bottom of this article The SetupSoybeans have been on a run. November beans traded to new highs today, RSI is sitting around 74.65, and price is stretched well above every major moving average on the daily chart — roughly 67 cents above the 50-day area and well above the longer-term average. The 14-day average true range has expanded to about 23 cents, so the market is not just higher, it is moving faster.The move has real fundamental support behind it. That is not in dispute:Routine flash sales to ChinaHigher energy prices lifting the vegetable oil complexPoor weather across parts of the U.S. over the last several weeksForward-looking concerns about El NiñoSo why write a piece about the downside?Because three separate, independent things are lining up at the same time, and one of them is a calendar event that arrives tomorrow. When the seasonal window, fund positioning, and the technical picture all point the same direction at once, that is worth understanding — whether you’re bullish or bearish. |
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