Today Markets Analysis: Silver prices recovered more than 1% from their two-day lows on Friday, but the rebound has yet to change the short-term technical picture. XAG/USD remains below the key $64.10–$64.15 head-and-shoulders neckline, leaving sellers in control while momentum indicators continue to favour the downside.
Silver Rebounds, but Neckline Remains a Barrier
Silver traded around $64.24, recovering from an intraday low of $62.94. Despite the rebound, the white metal has failed to decisively reclaim the neckline around $64.10–$64.15.
That failure is important from a technical perspective. The head-and-shoulders structure remains intact while prices trade below the neckline, meaning the latest recovery could represent a corrective bounce rather than the beginning of a sustained bullish reversal.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below its neutral 50 level. Although the indicator is attempting to turn higher, it continues to signal that short-term momentum is tilted toward sellers.
XAG/USD Technical Outlook
A sustained break above $65.00 would begin to improve the technical picture and could open the way toward the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $66.94.
A move through $66.94 could then expose the $67.00 area, followed by the psychological $70.00 level.
Beyond $70.00, the next major technical reference is the 200-day SMA at $73.05.
| Level | Technical significance |
|---|---|
| $65.00 | Initial upside breakout level |
| $66.94 | 100-day SMA |
| $67.00 | Secondary resistance |
| $70.00 | Major psychological resistance |
| $73.05 | 200-day SMA |
For the bullish scenario to gain credibility, silver would need to reclaim the neckline and then establish itself above $65.00.
Downside Risks Increase Below $62.55
The immediate support level is around $64.00, but a renewed deterioration in momentum could quickly bring the 50-day SMA at $62.55 into focus.
A decisive break below $62.55 would strengthen the bearish technical structure and expose the $61.01 area, corresponding with the July 22 high-turned-support.
If $61.01 also fails, the next major downside target would be the psychological $60.00 level.
| Level | Technical significance |
|---|---|
| $64.00 | Immediate support |
| $62.55 | 50-day SMA |
| $61.01 | July 22 high-turned-support |
| $60.00 | Major psychological support |
Silver’s Broader Technical Picture
The current setup leaves silver at an important technical crossroads. The recovery from $62.94 demonstrates that buyers remain active, but the inability to reclaim the neckline means the bounce has not yet invalidated the bearish formation.
For now, the $64.10–$64.15 neckline remains the key level to watch on the upside, while $62.55 represents the critical downside trigger.
A sustained move above $65.00 would shift the balance toward a recovery, whereas a break below $62.55 would reinforce the bearish scenario.
Today Markets View
Silver’s latest rebound should be treated cautiously. The 1%+ daily gain looks constructive on the surface, but the more important signal remains the failure to establish a sustained break above the head-and-shoulders neckline.
“Silver has bounced sharply from its two-day lows, but the technical structure remains vulnerable while XAG/USD trades below the $64.10–$64.15 neckline. The $62.55 area is now particularly important: a break below it would strengthen the bearish setup and bring $61.01 and $60.00 into focus.”
— Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets
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Key levels:
Resistance: $64.10–$64.15 → $65.00 → $66.94 → $67.00 → $70.00
Support: $64.00 → $62.55 → $61.01 → $60.00
Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets
Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market Intelligence
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