United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategist Quek Ser Leang notes USD/CHF reversed sharply from 0.8382 to close at 0.8286, with intraday price action expected to edge lower toward 0.8245 while staying above 0.8225. On a 1–3 week view, he now sees the pair in a 0.8245–0.8365 range after prior upside momentum faded. Over 1–3 months, he still anticipates a rebound, though not strong enough to revisit the July peak.

Range-bound as US Dollar momentum fades – UOB

“24-HOUR VIEW: USD rose to 0.8382 last Thursday and then pulled back sharply to a low of 0.8291. On Friday, when USD was at 0.8310, we indicated that “the pullback has scope to extend,” but we were of the view that “any decline should stay within a range of 0.8280/0.8335.” However, USD briefly plunged to a low of 0.8225 during the NY session and then rebounded to close at 0.8286 (-0.25%). While the price action has resulted in an increase in downward momentum, it is not sufficient to indicate a continued decline. Today, we expect USD to edge lower to 0.8245. USD is unlikely to revisit the 0.8225 low. Resistance is at 0.8300; a breach of 0.8310 would indicate that the immediate downward pressure has eased.”

“1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We revised our USD view from positive to neutral last Friday (02 Oct, spot at 0.8310). We highlighted that “upward momentum fizzled out quickly, and USD has likely entered a range-trading phase between 0.8245 and 0.8365.” While USD subsequently dropped below 0.8245 with a low of 0.8225, the decline was brief. There has been no increase in downward momentum, and we continue to expect USD to trade between 0.8245 and 0.8365 for now.”