• The RBA remains open to rate hikes if upside inflation risks from oil and data centers materialize.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s planned $1 trillion bond buyback expansion and secondary Iran sanctions continue weighing on USD.
• Traders await key US events this week, including PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole address.

AUD/USD gains ground after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 0.7150 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the Minutes from its July monetary policy Meeting on Tuesday, signaling that the Board remains prepared to hike interest rates should upside inflation risks materialize.

While several members expressed concern that rising risks, driven by surge factors like oil prices, broad cost-pressure pass-throughs, and the data center expansion boom, could take hold, others pointed to offsetting downside risks. This balance of perspectives led the RBA board to conclude it has time to evaluate incoming data before making further policy moves, emphasizing that clear evidence of sustained progress is required to ensure inflation returns to its target band.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) continues to face downward pressure against major currencies, including the Australian Dollar (AUD), following the US Treasury’s decision to double its buyback operations for longer-dated bonds. Reports suggest Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could tap up to $1 trillion from the Treasury General Account to finance these repurchases.

Geopolitical tensions are simultaneously escalating as the US expands secondary sanctions targeting entities trading with Iran, with Secretary Bessent warning that a major financial institution could face enforcement action this week and noting that Chinese entities will not be exempt.

Traders are now turning their attention to a busy slate of economic events in the United States this week. Key releases include Tuesday’s consumer confidence figures and Wednesday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a primary inflation metric. Market focus will culminate on Friday when Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivers a speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium, which is expected to provide further clarity on the near-term trajectory of the US Dollar.

Markets look to Jackson Hole as focus stays on Bessent and volatility risks

Strategists at BNY observe that attention in the near term “stays on Bessent and Jackson Hole,” with investors effectively in a holding pattern and “markets hoping volatility remains contained until then.” They note that this focus underscores how sensitive sentiment remains to policy signals and headline risk around the upcoming gathering.