Cocoa prices are recovering as sharply lower Ivory Coast port deliveries raise fresh concerns about near-term bean availability, despite rising exchange inventories and mixed global chocolate demand. December 2026 New York cocoa futures closed 0.74% higher, while London cocoa gained 0.76%, reversing early losses as traders assessed the impact of weather-related harvesting disruptions in West Africa.

The cocoa price forecast remains finely balanced between immediate supply constraints and evidence of a more comfortable inventory position. Ivory Coast deliveries fell 41% year-on-year during the first 18 days of October, while ICE cocoa inventories climbed to a 2.25-year high of 3.61 million bags. Looking further ahead, concerns over weaker cocoa crop development in Ivory Coast and Ghana, black pod disease and potential El Niño-related weather disruption could tighten supplies during the 2026/27 season.

Market Snapshot

Figures are reproduced from the supplied market report. Delivery periods, crop years and forecast assumptions differ across the cited statistics.

Current Cocoa Price Action: Supply Concerns Support a Recovery

New York and London cocoa futures recovered from early losses to finish higher, as traders focused on the sharp reduction in recent Ivory Coast deliveries.

December New York cocoa advanced 42 points to close 0.74% higher, while December London cocoa gained 32 points, or 0.76%.

The recovery reflects concerns that heavy rainfall has disrupted access to cocoa farms and slowed deliveries to ports just as the new harvest begins. Damaged roads and bridges can delay the movement of beans even when cocoa has been harvested, tightening the amount of product reaching export channels in the short term.

However, lower deliveries do not automatically prove that total production has fallen. Logistics disruptions, harvesting schedules and the timing of farmer sales can all affect port-arrival figures.

The market must therefore distinguish between a temporary interruption in deliveries and a sustained reduction in the volume of cocoa available from West Africa.

Ivory Coast Cocoa Supply: Deliveries Fall 41%

Ivory Coast remains the most important influence on the global cocoa supply outlook.

Government data show that farmers delivered 78,212 tonnes of cocoa to ports between October 1 and October 18, compared with 133,209 tonnes during the equivalent period a year earlier. This represents a decline of approximately 41%.

The reduction is significant because the country is entering a key harvesting period. Heavy rainfall has reportedly limited access to cocoa farms, damaged transport infrastructure and slowed deliveries.

If these disruptions persist, exporters may face delays in securing beans, potentially supporting futures prices. However, a recovery in road access and harvesting activity could allow delayed supplies to reach ports later, reducing the immediate market impact.

Historical production figures also complicate the outlook. Ivory Coast’s cocoa regulator reported that the country harvested 2.06 million tonnes from June 2025 to June 2026, up 30% from 1.58 million tonnes a year earlier.

That strong prior-season output highlights the potential for ample underlying supply even when current deliveries weaken. Traders will need further port-arrival and crop data to determine whether the latest decline signals a structural shortfall or a temporary logistical disruption.

Bullish Sentiment: Factors Supporting Cocoa Prices

1. Lower Ivory Coast deliveries: Port arrivals fell 41% year-on-year during October 1–18, increasing concerns about immediate availability.
2. Heavy rainfall disrupting harvesting: Damaged roads, bridges and restricted farm access have slowed deliveries during the early harvest period.
3. Weak crop development: Early assessments indicate below-average cherelle formation and poor pod development in Ivory Coast, raising concerns about the forthcoming main crop.
4. Potentially smaller Ivory Coast harvest: The supplied early estimate of approximately 1.8 million tonnes for 2026/27 would represent an 18% decline from the previous season’s reported 2.2 million tonnes.
5. Ghana production risks: Ghana’s Cocoa Board has warned that swollen shoot disease, aging trees and adverse weather could reduce future output.
6. El Niño concerns: Potentially warmer and drier conditions in West Africa could increase crop stress and reduce yields if the forecast materialises.
7. Stronger Asian and European grindings: Asian cocoa grindings rose 29% year-on-year, while European grindings increased 3.2%, indicating stronger processing activity in those regions during the third quarter.

Bearish Sentiment: Risks That Could Limit Cocoa Gains

1. Rising ICE inventories: Exchange stocks reached 3,606,396 bags, their highest level in approximately 2.25 years, suggesting greater readily available supply.
2. Weak North American grindings: Q3 cocoa processing in North America fell 2.5% year-on-year to 109,978 tonnes, signalling softer demand from an important consuming region.
3. Strong prior-season Ivory Coast production: Harvested output rose 30% to 2.06 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season, highlighting the potential for ample underlying supply.
4. Strong Ghana production in 2025/26: Ghana reported 750,000 tonnes harvested for the season, up 25.6% from 597,000 tonnes in 2024/25.
5. Possible recovery in port arrivals: If weather and transport conditions improve, delayed beans could reach ports and ease short-term supply concerns.
6. Difficulty passing on high costs: Cargill reported mark-to-market losses on cocoa for the quarter ended August 31, suggesting that high input costs were difficult to pass through fully to customers.
7. Uncertain global demand: The divergence between North American, Asian and European grindings shows that demand conditions are not improving uniformly across regions.

Cocoa Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching

Cocoa’s near-term direction will depend on whether supply disruptions in West Africa outweigh the bearish influence of rising exchange inventories and uneven processing demand.

Bullish scenario: Prices could extend their recovery if Ivory Coast deliveries remain substantially below year-ago levels, rainfall continues to disrupt harvesting and new crop assessments confirm weaker production. Evidence that Ghana’s output will fall more sharply than expected could add further support.

Bearish scenario: Cocoa could face renewed selling if ICE inventories continue increasing, North American processing remains weak and Ivory Coast port arrivals recover as transport conditions improve. Stronger-than-expected crop output would further reduce the risk of a sustained supply shortage.

Consolidation scenario: Prices could trade unevenly if immediate supply disruptions are offset by high inventories and mixed demand. In this environment, traders may react sharply to weekly delivery figures, inventory changes and new crop estimates.

The supplied information does not establish confirmed technical support or resistance levels. The latest gains show a recovery in sentiment, but a sustained upward trend would require further evidence that physical supply is tightening.

Global Cocoa Demand: Regional Grindings Send Mixed Signals

Third-quarter cocoa grindings reveal a divided demand picture.

The National Confectioners Association reported that North American grindings fell 2.5% year-on-year to 109,978 tonnes, disappointing expectations for no change. This suggests that processors in the region handled less cocoa than a year earlier, although grindings can be influenced by inventory management, processing schedules and the cost of beans.

Asia delivered a much stronger result. The Cocoa Association of Asia reported a record 29% year-on-year increase to 233,767 tonnes, significantly exceeding expectations for 15% growth.

European grindings also surprised positively, rising 3.2% to 348,215 tonnes rather than recording the expected decline.

The contrast matters because higher cocoa prices can pressure chocolate manufacturers and consumers, but regional processing data do not always move together. Stronger Asian and European grindings provide some support for demand, while North America’s decline remains a warning against assuming a broad-based recovery.

For the coming sessions, the sustainability of these trends will be more important than any single quarterly figure.

ICE Cocoa Inventories: A Major Counterweight to Supply Concerns

ICE cocoa inventories have risen steadily since the beginning of the year, reaching 3,606,396 bags, the highest level in approximately 2.25 years.

This is a significant bearish consideration because exchange inventories provide an indication of cocoa available within the exchange’s certified delivery system. Rising stocks can ease concerns about immediate availability and reduce the urgency of buying futures.

However, certified inventories do not represent all global cocoa stocks, and they cannot be interpreted in isolation from crop quality, warehouse movements, regional supply and processor demand.

The central question is whether inventories continue increasing as the new West African crop arrives or whether lower deliveries begin to slow the build-up. A sustained reversal in inventory growth, combined with weak port arrivals, would provide stronger evidence of tightening conditions.

Ivory Coast and Ghana: The 2026/27 Crop Outlook

The next major driver of cocoa prices is the expected size and quality of the West African crop.

Early assessments cited in the supplied report suggest below-average cherelle formation and poor pod development in Ivory Coast. The reported estimate of 1.8 million tonnes for the 2026/27 season is approximately 18% below the previous season’s 2.2 million tonnes.

In Ghana, the Cocoa Board’s field survey points to production of 650,000 tonnes, down from 750,000 tonnes in 2025/26. Separately, COCOBOD has warned that output could fall to between 450,000 and 550,000 tonnes due to swollen shoot disease, aging farms and possible adverse weather.

These estimates differ materially, so they should be treated as separate assessments rather than a single agreed forecast. Their common implication is that the next crop faces significant downside risks, but the scale of any eventual reduction remains uncertain.

The distinction between current-season output and future crop estimates is essential. Ghana’s reported 750,000-tonne harvest for 2025/26 represents strong recent production, while the weaker forecasts concern the subsequent season.

Weather Outlook: El Niño Could Increase Production Risks

The potential development of a strong El Niño is an important medium-term risk for cocoa supply.

El Niño can alter rainfall and temperature patterns across West Africa. If conditions become warmer and drier than normal, cocoa trees may experience moisture stress, potentially affecting flowering, pod development and yields.

At the same time, excessive rainfall can create its own problems. Persistent wet conditions may restrict farm access, damage transport routes and encourage black pod disease, which can reduce bean quality and damage crops.

This means cocoa production faces risks at both ends of the weather spectrum. The actual impact will depend on the timing, intensity and regional distribution of rainfall, as well as soil moisture and disease pressure.

For traders, measurable changes in crop assessments, disease reports and port arrivals will be more useful than treating an El Niño forecast alone as confirmation of a production shortfall.

Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions

Cocoa prices have regained ground, but the market remains caught between tighter near-term deliveries and rising exchange inventories.

The main developments to monitor are:

• Ivory Coast port arrivals: Whether deliveries remain below year-ago levels or recover as harvesting and transport conditions improve.
• ICE inventories: Whether stocks continue rising or begin to stabilise as the new crop enters the market.
• West African crop assessments: Whether early estimates of weaker production are confirmed by further field surveys.
• Regional grindings: Whether stronger Asian and European processing offsets continued weakness in North America.
• Weather conditions: Whether rainfall disruptions ease or new crop risks emerge from excessive rain, disease or El Niño-related dryness.
• Ghana production: Whether the different estimates for 2026/27 converge as more reliable production data become available.
• Processor profitability: Whether manufacturers can absorb high bean costs without reducing purchases or passing excessive increases on to consumers.

The immediate outlook is cautiously supportive if low port arrivals persist, but rising inventories and mixed demand prevent a clear bullish conclusion. Confirmation of a genuine supply deficit will require sustained evidence of lower deliveries, weaker crop prospects and tightening availability.

Currency Hedger View: Cocoa Prices and International Business Exposure

Chocolate manufacturers, cocoa processors, confectionery businesses and commodity traders face exposure to both cocoa-price volatility and foreign-exchange movements.

Cocoa is traded internationally, and changes in the US dollar can affect the local-currency cost of bean purchases. Businesses operating in Europe, Asia or other regions may therefore face a combination of rising raw-material prices and unfavourable exchange-rate movements.

Companies with recurring international purchases should assess their commodity exposure alongside their currency requirements. Suitable currency hedging arrangements may help provide greater certainty over future payment costs, depending on the business’s circumstances and contract terms. Currency hedging does not eliminate the underlying risk of cocoa-price movements.

Manage international currency exposure with Currency Hedger:

• Open a Currency Hedger account
• Visit Currency Hedger

Today Markets Analysis

Cocoa futures are recovering as sharply lower Ivory Coast port deliveries renew concerns about near-term supply, but the market is not yet showing a uniformly bullish picture. ICE inventories have climbed to a multi-year high, while regional grindings data reveal weaker North American demand alongside stronger Asian and European processing.

The longer-term supply outlook remains vulnerable to crop deterioration in Ivory Coast and Ghana, disease pressure and potentially adverse El Niño conditions. However, strong prior-season production and the possibility of recovering port arrivals could limit gains if the current disruptions prove temporary.

The key question is whether lower deliveries develop into a sustained reduction in available cocoa or whether rising inventories and improving logistics absorb the immediate shock. Traders should monitor physical supply data and crop assessments closely before concluding that a lasting shortage is emerging.

Market analysis by Today Markets, with international payment and currency exposure insights from Currency Hedger.

Risk Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Cocoa futures can be highly volatile, and leveraged trading can result in substantial losses. Forecasts and market scenarios are conditional and are not guarantees of future performance. Traders should conduct their own research and assess their risk tolerance before making investment decisions.