Cotton futures finished Friday’s session higher across the front months, with December 2026 cotton settling at 78.78 cents per pound, up 11 points, and March 2027 gaining 10 points to close at 82.61 cents. May 2027 futures also advanced, finishing at 84.30 cents, up 9 points.
Despite the late-week recovery, December cotton remained down 33 points over the week, leaving the market facing a cautious outlook heading into the new trading week. Export sales figures showed a sharp decline from the previous week and from the same period last year, although US shipments improved significantly.
With crude oil adding only 18 cents per barrel and the US Dollar Index rising 0.231, cotton enters the coming sessions balancing modest futures strength against weaker export sales and mixed physical-market indicators.
Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Latest Position |
|---|---|
| December 2026 cotton | 78.78 cents/lb, +11 points |
| March 2027 cotton | 82.61 cents/lb, +10 points |
| May 2027 cotton | 84.30 cents/lb, +9 points |
| December weekly performance | -33 points |
| USDA export sales | 157,326 RB |
| Weekly change in sales | -43.31% |
| Change versus same week last year | -46.15% |
| US cotton shipments | 171,424 RB |
| Weekly change in shipments | +26.42% |
| The Seam average price | 75.66 cents/lb |
| Cotlook A Index | 90.80 cents/lb, down 5 points |
| ICE certified stocks | 79,431 bales |
| Adjusted World Price | 64.34 cents/lb |
Friday’s Cotton Market Close
Cotton futures recorded gains of 4 to 27 points across the front months on Friday, while deferred contracts posted losses of 2 points.
December 2026 cotton settled at 78.78 cents per pound, gaining 11 points, while March 2027 finished at 82.61 cents, up 10 points. May 2027 cotton closed at 84.30 cents, adding 9 points.
The positive session provided some recovery heading into the weekend, but December’s 33-point weekly decline remains an important consideration. The market will need to build on Friday’s gains if it is to improve its near-term technical and sentiment outlook.
USDA Export Sales: New Buying Weakens
The latest USDA Export Sales report showed US cotton sales of 157,326 running bales for the week ending November 5.
This represented a 43.31% decline from the previous week and was 46.15% below the same week last year, highlighting a considerable slowdown in new export commitments.
Vietnam was the largest reported buyer, purchasing 56,100 running bales, while Turkey accounted for another 26,400 running bales.
The decline in sales will remain a key concern for traders next week. Sustained weakness in export commitments could limit confidence in the demand outlook, particularly if subsequent reports fail to show an improvement.
US Cotton Shipments Improve
While new sales weakened, physical shipments provided a more encouraging signal.
US cotton shipments reached 171,424 running bales, rising 26.42% from the previous week and increasing 26.14% compared with the same week last year.
The largest reported destination was 64,600 running bales, with Bangladesh receiving 19,700 running bales.
The improvement in shipments suggests that previously committed export business continues to move through the market. However, traders will be watching whether stronger shipment activity can be sustained alongside the weaker new-sales figures.
Physical Market: The Seam and Cotlook A Index
The Seam reported 2,903 bales sold on November 12, at an average price of 75.66 cents per pound.
The Cotlook A Index declined 5 points on Thursday to 90.80, providing another indicator for traders assessing international physical cotton values.
The difference between futures and physical-market benchmarks will remain relevant as the market looks for confirmation of demand and buying interest during the coming week.
ICE Certified Stocks and Adjusted World Price
ICE certified cotton stocks increased by 2,861 bales on November 12, bringing the total to 79,431 bales.
The increase in certified inventories will be monitored for signs of changing availability within the deliverable market.
Meanwhile, the Adjusted World Price rose 77 points on Thursday to 64.34 cents per pound. This increase provides an additional reference point for the US cotton market as traders assess domestic pricing conditions.
External Market Influences: Crude Oil and the US Dollar
Crude oil gained just 18 cents per barrel during Friday’s session, while the US Dollar Index increased by 0.231.
Neither market recorded a particularly dramatic move, but both remain relevant external indicators for cotton traders. The dollar’s advance will be watched as the market assesses the competitiveness of US export prices, while crude oil remains an important wider commodity-market reference.
Bullish Sentiment
- Friday futures recovery: Gains across the front months provided a firmer close heading into the weekend.
- Improved US shipments: Cotton shipments increased 26.42% week-on-week and 26.14% year-on-year.
- Strong reported buying from Vietnam: Vietnam accounted for 56,100 running bales of export sales.
- Higher Adjusted World Price: The AWP increased 77 points to 64.34 cents per pound.
Bearish Sentiment
- Weekly losses persist: December cotton remained down 33 points for the week despite Friday’s advance.
- Export sales decline: New sales fell 43.31% from the previous week and were 46.15% below the comparable week last year.
- Higher ICE certified stocks: Certified inventories increased by 2,861 bales to 79,431.
- Stronger US dollar: The Dollar Index gained 0.231, creating another factor for traders to monitor when assessing export competitiveness.
- Lower Cotlook A Index: The index declined 5 points to 90.80.
Price Forecast – What Cotton Traders Are Watching Next Week
The coming week will be important in determining whether Friday’s recovery can develop into a more sustained rebound or whether the market returns to the weaker direction seen over the full week.
Traders will be concentrating on several factors:
- December futures around 78.78 cents: Whether the front-month contract can hold its Friday settlement and extend its recovery.
- Export demand: Whether new US cotton sales recover following the sharp decline in the latest USDA report.
- Shipment momentum: Whether the 26.42% weekly increase in shipments represents a continuing improvement in export movement.
- ICE certified stocks: Whether the latest increase in inventories develops into a more persistent trend.
- Dollar direction: Whether further US dollar strength adds pressure to the export outlook.
Supply Outlook
ICE certified stocks increased to 79,431 bales, following an addition of 2,861 bales on November 12. This will remain an important physical-market indicator in the coming sessions.
The available figures do not establish a broader change in global cotton production or supply. For now, traders will be monitoring certified inventories and physical-market activity for further evidence of tightening or improving availability.
Demand Outlook
The demand picture remains mixed. New export sales weakened substantially, but US shipments increased both week-on-week and year-on-year.
This contrast will be central to next week’s market direction. Stronger shipments demonstrate continued movement of previously committed cotton, but the sharp decline in new sales raises questions about the pace of fresh international buying.
A recovery in export commitments would help improve sentiment. Continued weakness, however, could leave futures struggling to extend Friday’s gains.
Cotton Market Outlook for the Week Ahead
Cotton enters the new week with a modestly stronger Friday close but a negative weekly performance still weighing on sentiment. December 2026 futures finished at 78.78 cents per pound, gaining 11 points on the session but losing 33 points across the week.
The strongest positive signal came from US shipments, which increased significantly compared with both the previous week and the same period last year. However, the decline in new export sales remains the market’s main demand-side concern.
The key question for next week is whether stronger shipment activity can translate into renewed export buying. If sales recover and futures maintain Friday’s gains, cotton could attempt to stabilise. If new commitments remain weak and certified stocks continue to increase, the market may face renewed selling pressure.
For now, traders will be watching export demand, ICE stocks and the US dollar closely as cotton looks to establish its next direction.
Currency Hedger – Market Contributor
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Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational and market commentary purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Commodity prices are subject to volatility, and readers should conduct their own research before making trading or investment decisions.
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