Cotton futures enter Tuesday’s trading session under pressure following a mixed performance on Monday, with the December 2026 contract settling at 78.78 cents per pound, down 33 points. March 2027 cotton closed at 82.60 cents, losing 19 points, while May 2027 finished at 84.15 cents, down 20 points.
The latest weakness comes as sharply lower crude oil prices and a weaker US dollar influence the broader commodity environment. Meanwhile, US crop progress data presents a mixed picture: boll opening remains behind the five-year average, but harvesting is progressing ahead of its normal pace.
Physical market indicators also provide important context, with ICE certified cotton stocks increasing and the Cotlook A Index advancing. Traders are now assessing whether tighter crop development timing and physical market conditions can provide support against the recent weakness in futures.
Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Latest Reading |
|---|---|
| December 2026 Cotton | 78.78 cents/lb |
| December Contract Change | -33 points |
| March 2027 Cotton | 82.60 cents/lb |
| March Contract Change | -19 points |
| May 2027 Cotton | 84.15 cents/lb |
| May Contract Change | -20 points |
| US Crop with Bolls Open | 94% |
| Five-Year Average | 98% |
| US Harvest Progress | 71% |
| Five-Year Harvest Average | 63% |
| Cotlook A Index | 90.40 cents/lb |
| ICE Certified Stocks | 75,725 bales |
| Adjusted World Price | 63.57 cents/lb |
| The Seam Sales | 6,296 bales |
Current Cotton Price Action
Cotton futures posted mixed trading on Monday, with front-month contracts declining between 1 and 33 points while other contracts recorded gains of 9 to 33 points.
The December 2026 contract closed at 78.78 cents per pound, down 33 points, establishing the latest reference price for Tuesday’s session. March 2027 settled at 82.60 cents, down 19 points, while May 2027 finished at 84.15 cents, losing 20 points.
The broader commodity environment provided an additional headwind. Crude oil declined by $4.45 per barrel during Monday’s session, while the US Dollar Index fell by 0.639 points.
The combination of lower energy prices and a weaker dollar presents a mixed external backdrop for cotton. Traders will be watching whether the latest futures weakness attracts fresh buying or develops into further selling pressure.
US Cotton Crop Progress: Boll Opening Behind Average
The latest USDA Crop Progress report showed that 94% of the US cotton crop had open bolls, compared with the five-year average of 98%.
This indicates that boll opening remains four percentage points behind the historical pace, highlighting a slower-than-average development schedule.
However, harvesting is progressing considerably faster.
US cotton harvest reached 71%, compared with the five-year average of 63%. This places harvesting eight percentage points ahead of the normal pace.
The contrasting figures provide a mixed fundamental picture. While boll opening is lagging, the faster harvest progress suggests that a substantial proportion of the crop is already moving through the harvesting process.
Traders will continue monitoring subsequent USDA updates for evidence of whether the remaining crop development creates any additional production or quality concerns.
Physical Cotton Market and ICE Certified Stocks
Physical market indicators delivered mixed signals.
The Seam reported that 6,296 bales were sold on Friday at an average price of 79.63 cents per pound.
Meanwhile, the Cotlook A Index increased by 50 points on November 6 to 90.40 cents per pound, indicating a stronger movement in the reported physical market benchmark.
ICE certified cotton stocks increased by 8,551 bales on November 6, bringing the certified inventory level to 75,725 bales.
The increase in certified stocks provides an additional supply consideration for futures traders, although the available figures do not establish the overall size of global physical cotton availability.
The Adjusted World Price declined by 94 points from the previous week to 63.57 cents per pound.
Together, these indicators highlight the importance of monitoring physical market demand, certified inventory movements and the relationship between futures and physical cotton prices.
Bullish Cotton Sentiment
- Slower boll opening: US boll opening at 94% remains below the five-year average of 98%, indicating that crop development is running behind its normal pace.
- Stronger Cotlook A Index: The index advanced 50 points to 90.40 cents per pound, providing a positive signal from the physical market benchmark.
- Weaker US dollar: Monday’s decline in the Dollar Index could improve the relative competitiveness of US cotton in international markets, although the impact will depend on broader currency movements.
- Physical market activity: The Seam recorded 6,296 bales sold at an average of 79.63 cents per pound, demonstrating continued reported trading activity.
Bearish Cotton Sentiment
- December futures weakness: The December contract lost 33 points to close at 78.78 cents per pound.
- Lower crude oil prices: Crude oil declined by $4.45 per barrel, creating a weaker energy-market backdrop.
- Faster harvest progress: US harvesting at 71% is eight percentage points ahead of the five-year average, suggesting that the crop is progressing through harvest faster than usual.
- Higher certified stocks: ICE certified inventories increased by 8,551 bales to 75,725, adding to available certified supply.
- Lower Adjusted World Price: The AWP declined 94 points to 63.57 cents per pound, reflecting a weaker weekly adjustment.
Cotton Price Forecast: What Traders Should Watch
The immediate outlook for cotton remains mixed, with December futures closing at 78.78 cents per pound following Monday’s decline.
The most important near-term consideration is whether the market can attract buying interest around the latest closing levels or whether continued selling pressure pushes futures lower.
On the fundamental side, the slower pace of boll opening provides a potential supportive factor, while the faster-than-average harvest progress and rising ICE certified stocks offer counterarguments.
The Cotlook A Index’s advance to 90.40 cents per pound is also worth monitoring, particularly if physical market strength continues to diverge from futures performance.
Traders should focus on:
- The next USDA crop progress update and any changes to US crop development.
- Further movements in ICE certified cotton inventories.
- Physical market activity and changes in the Cotlook A Index.
- Crude oil and US dollar movements.
- Whether December futures can stabilise around Monday’s 78.78-cent settlement.
Without additional supply or demand data, the latest figures do not establish a definitive breakout direction.
Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions
Cotton begins Tuesday with the December contract under pressure after closing at 78.78 cents per pound.
The broader market faces competing influences. Slower boll opening and a stronger Cotlook A Index provide some underlying support, while faster harvesting and higher certified stocks could limit buying enthusiasm.
The weaker crude oil market also remains an important consideration for the wider commodity complex.
The coming sessions will be important in determining whether cotton futures can recover from Monday’s losses or whether the market remains vulnerable to further downside.
Attention will remain on USDA crop progress, physical cotton demand and the movement of certified inventories as traders assess the balance between available supply and market demand.
Today Markets Analysis
Cotton futures are entering Tuesday’s session with a mixed fundamental picture and a clear reference point following Monday’s close.
December 2026 cotton settled at 78.78 cents per pound, while March 2027 and May 2027 closed at 82.60 and 84.15 cents respectively.
The USDA figures show that boll opening remains behind the five-year average, but harvesting is progressing faster than normal. Meanwhile, ICE certified stocks have increased, although the Cotlook A Index has moved higher.
This divergence between futures performance and selected physical market indicators will be important for traders assessing the next move.
For now, cotton remains caught between potential support from crop development concerns and physical market pricing, and pressure from faster harvesting, higher certified stocks and weaker energy prices.
Currency Hedger View
Cotton price movements are important for textile manufacturers, clothing producers, agricultural merchants and international businesses purchasing raw materials across borders.
For companies sourcing cotton in US dollars while generating revenue in euros, pounds or other currencies, commodity price movements are only one part of the procurement equation. Exchange-rate fluctuations can also materially change the final cost of raw materials and influence operating margins.
With cotton futures trading lower but physical market indicators presenting a mixed picture, businesses should consider both commodity pricing and currency exposure when planning procurement and supplier payments.
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Risk Disclaimer
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading recommendations or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Agricultural commodity markets are subject to volatility and may be affected by weather, crop conditions, production, inventory levels, demand and currency movements. Trading leveraged products, including contracts for difference (CFDs), involves significant risk and may result in losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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