Cotton futures are heading into Monday’s trading session with a firmer tone after contracts closed higher on Friday, extending the weekly recovery in the December contract. Prices gained between 7 and 40 points across the session, while December cotton finished the week 128 points higher.

The latest close provides a more constructive starting point for Monday, although export sales remain behind their historical pace and managed money continues to reduce its net-long exposure. Traders will be assessing whether Friday’s buying interest can carry into the new week or whether the stronger US dollar and underlying demand concerns limit further gains.

The December 2026 contract closed at 79.11 cents per pound, up 40 points, while March 2027 settled at 82.79 cents and May 2027 at 84.35 cents.

Cotton Market Snapshot

Friday’s Cotton Close: Buyers Push Futures Higher

Cotton futures finished Friday with gains across the market, with contracts advancing between 7 and 40 points. December 2026 cotton led the reported contracts, closing at 79.11 cents per pound, up 40 points on the session.

The December contract also recorded a weekly gain of 128 points, indicating that buying interest has strengthened over the course of the week.

March 2027 cotton settled at 82.79 cents, gaining 24 points, while May 2027 cotton closed at 84.35 cents, up 29 points.

The positive close gives the market a firmer technical starting position heading into Monday. However, traders will want to see whether the buying interest continues when the market reopens, particularly with export commitments still trailing the five-year average pace.

What Traders Should Watch at Monday’s Open

The key question for Monday is whether cotton can maintain the momentum established during Friday’s session.

December cotton’s 79.11-cent close will be an important reference point as traders assess the initial direction of the market. A sustained move above Friday’s settlement would indicate that buyers remain active, while a weaker opening could signal profit-taking or renewed caution following the weekly advance.

Three factors are likely to influence early trading:

1. Continuation of Friday’s buying: The 40-point advance in December cotton and the 128-point weekly gain provide a positive backdrop for the next session.
2. US dollar strength: The US Dollar Index advanced by 0.699 on Friday, creating a potentially less supportive currency environment for dollar-denominated cotton.
3. Export demand concerns: Although US export commitments are 20% above last year’s level, the current pace remains below the five-year average, leaving demand as an important consideration.

Crude oil also declined by 57 cents per barrel on Friday. This provides a mixed macroeconomic backdrop alongside the stronger dollar, and traders will be monitoring whether either market develops a more pronounced influence on cotton during Monday’s session.

US Cotton Export Commitments: Stronger Than Last Year but Behind Average Pace

USDA Export Sales data showed total US cotton export commitments reaching 5.942 million running bales as of October 29.

Commitments are approximately 20% higher than the corresponding level last year, indicating an improvement in year-on-year demand commitments.

However, the figure represents only 51% of the USDA export projection, compared with a five-year average pace of 58%.

This difference remains important for the market. While the annual comparison is positive, export commitments need to accelerate to close the gap with the historical pace.

For Monday, traders will be looking for signs that export demand can provide sufficient support to sustain the recent price recovery.

Managed Money Reduces Net-Long Cotton Exposure

CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed managed money reducing its net-long cotton position by another 3,042 contracts during the week of November 3.

The managed money net-long position consequently declined to 53,148 contracts.

The reduction indicates that speculative positioning has become less bullish, despite the improvement in futures prices during the latest trading week.

This creates an important contrast in the market: futures have advanced, but managed money has continued to trim its net-long exposure.

If speculative positioning continues to decline, it could limit the strength of any further rally. Conversely, renewed buying by managed money could reinforce the positive price momentum.

Physical Cotton Market: The Seam, Cotlook A and ICE Stocks

Physical market indicators provide additional context for the next trading session.

The Seam reported 2,010 bales sold on November 5 at an average price of 73.10 cents per pound.

The Cotlook A Index increased by 100 points on November 5 to 89.90, reflecting a stronger assessed international physical cotton price.

ICE certified cotton stocks increased by 458 bales on Thursday, bringing the total certified stock level to 67,174 bales.

Meanwhile, the Adjusted World Price declined by 94 points on Thursday to 63.57 cents per pound.

These indicators offer a mixed picture. The stronger Cotlook A Index provides a positive reference for physical cotton pricing, while the increase in certified ICE stocks and the lower Adjusted World Price remain relevant considerations for market participants.

Bullish Cotton Market Factors

1. Positive weekly performance: December cotton gained 128 points over the week, indicating improved buying interest.
2. Strong Friday close: December futures advanced 40 points to settle at 79.11 cents per pound.
3. Year-on-year export improvement: US export commitments are 20% above last year’s level.
4. Higher Cotlook A Index: The index advanced 100 points to 89.90.
5. Broad contract gains: December, March and May contracts all finished Friday higher.

Bearish Cotton Market Factors

1. Export commitments below average: The current 51% commitment pace trails the five-year average of 58%.
2. Managed money liquidation: Speculators reduced their net-long position by 3,042 contracts.
3. Stronger US dollar: The Dollar Index gained 0.699 on Friday, potentially limiting the competitiveness of US cotton.
4. Higher certified stocks: ICE certified inventories increased by 458 bales to 67,174.
5. Lower crude oil: Crude declined by 57 cents per barrel, adding another potentially less supportive influence to the broader commodity environment.

Cotton Price Forecast: What to Expect on Monday

December cotton’s Friday settlement at 79.11 cents per pound provides the immediate reference point for Monday’s opening session.

The weekly gain of 128 points suggests that the market has developed some positive momentum. However, the next move will depend on whether buyers are prepared to extend that advance or whether the market encounters selling pressure following the recent recovery.

A stronger Monday open, followed by an ability to hold above Friday’s settlement, would strengthen the near-term bullish outlook. It would also suggest that the market is responding positively to the recent gains across the futures curve.

A weaker opening or a failure to maintain Friday’s closing level would increase the possibility of consolidation, particularly given the ongoing reduction in speculative net-long positioning.

The export commitment gap will also remain central. The 20% year-on-year improvement is encouraging, but the 51% fulfilment pace against the five-year average of 58% means demand still needs to demonstrate further progress.

Cotton Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions

Cotton enters the new week with a firmer futures structure following Friday’s advance. December 2026 cotton closed at 79.11 cents per pound, while March and May 2027 contracts settled at 82.79 and 84.35 cents respectively.

The market’s immediate direction will depend on whether Friday’s buying interest carries into Monday’s open.

The bullish case rests on the positive weekly performance, stronger year-on-year export commitments and higher physical market pricing reflected in the Cotlook A Index.

The bearish case remains centred on export commitments trailing their historical pace, managed money reducing its net-long exposure and the stronger US dollar.

For traders, Monday’s opening price action will be important in determining whether the latest advance represents the beginning of a stronger recovery or a short-term move that requires further confirmation.

Today Markets Analysis

The latest cotton close presents a cautiously constructive picture. Futures have strengthened, but the underlying demand and positioning data do not yet provide an entirely bullish signal.

The 128-point weekly gain in December cotton is encouraging, although the reduction in managed money’s net-long position suggests that speculative conviction has not yet fully followed the price recovery.

The key development to watch is whether export commitments begin to close the gap with their five-year average pace. Without stronger evidence of demand acceleration, further gains may encounter resistance from traders assessing the underlying fundamentals.

Today Markets will be monitoring Monday’s opening direction, the December contract’s ability to maintain its 79.11-cent settlement and any changes in the broader commodity and currency environment.

Currency Hedger View

The stronger US Dollar Index is an important consideration for international cotton buyers and sellers.

A stronger dollar can increase the cost of US-denominated cotton for overseas purchasers whose domestic currencies weaken against the dollar. This can influence purchasing decisions, trade competitiveness and the local-currency cost of imported raw materials.

For businesses purchasing cotton internationally, exchange-rate movements can therefore affect procurement costs independently of changes in the underlying futures price.

Currency Hedger monitors these developments across the foreign exchange market, helping businesses understand currency exposure and manage the impact of exchange-rate volatility.

Manage your currency exposure: Open a Currency Hedger account or visit currencyhedger.com.

Market analysis by Today Markets, with currency and international payments commentary from Currency Hedger.

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