The U.S. dollar is resuming a significant upward trend today and is breaking out to new 8-week highs, as seen in the dollar index (USDIDX). The pair has reversed its previous downtrend on EUR/USD, driven by hawkish bets on future Fed policy and Trump’s surprisingly calm comments on the matter.

The USDIDX is shifting its previous trading regime. On the 2026 timeframe, the instrument has broken above +1std relative to the VWAP anchored since January 2026, while on the 2026 timeframe, it barely touches the middle trading zone. The RSI for the last 14 days is elevated but still below the textbook 70-point zone. Source: XTB

The Federal Reserve’s rhetoric has rarely sounded as hawkish as it does today. The Bloomberg Economics Index, which measures the tone of Fed officials’ statements using NLP methods, climbed to +9.94, near the upper end of the range seen over the past dozen or so years—a reading roughly one standard deviation above the average calculated since 2009. Source: Bloomberg Financial L.P.