October WTI crude oil (CLV26) closed down -0.13 (-0.16%) on Friday, and October RBOB gasoline (RBV26) closed up +0.0598 (+2.00%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices settled mixed on Friday.  Crude prices posted modest losses on Friday after the dollar index ($DXY) rallied to a 2-week high.  Also, signs of larger crude supplies transiting through the Strait of Hormuz are bearish for crude.  Losses and crude were limited after President Trump signaled the US has no interest in returning to the terms of the deal it signed with Iran in June, casting doubt on oil flows from the Middle East returning to normal anytime soon. 

Crude prices are under pressure on signs of larger oil supplies leaving the Middle East. Goldman Sachs said oil exports from the Persian Gulf have risen to 15 million to 16 million bpd, about two-thirds of pre-war levels. 

Crude prices also weakened on Friday amid reports that Venezuela is considering leaving OPEC, which could increase the chances of a price war as the remaining members of the cartel compete with one another for customers and market share.

Crude prices had dropped more than -8% this week to a 2-week low on Wednesday amid signs of easing Middle East tensions and larger supplies of crude moving through the Strait of Hormuz. On Tuesday, the New York Times reported the US State Department is preparing to send US diplomats back to embassies in the Middle East that were evacuated before and during the war with Iran, suggesting that the Trump administration does not anticipate a return to all-out hostilities with Iran.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that the US will begin a campaign to sever Iran from the global economy, warning that any country doing business with Iran risks facing US sanctions.  He said the US is focusing on five of Iran’s “most vital lifelines,” including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping, and that countries will have a defined timeline to shut down economic cooperation with Iran; if they don’t, the Treasury will act unilaterally. 

President Trump has said that the US naval blockade on Iranian ports is putting pressure on the country, and he has no timeline for resolving the US-Iran conflict.  Also, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that the US is playing the long game with Iran, implying the US has no plans to de-escalate the conflict, potentially limiting crude supplied from the Middle East.

Crude prices also have support amid fresh Israeli attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, dampening the prospects of ending hostilities in the Middle East and a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.  In addition, Israel has struck Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza, the Yemen- based Houthis have attacked ships in the Red Sea, and several vessels have been hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz.

In a supporting factor, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report, released on August 12, that the global oil supply deficit will worsen, even as oil demand is taking a hit from the war and high prices.  The IEA said global oil inventories will fall in Q3 at twice the previously estimated rate because of ongoing disruptions from the US-Iran war.

Crude also has support on concerns that Russian crude production could be disrupted further after a Bloomberg News report on Wednesday said that Russia is preparing to escalate attacks on Ukraine after concluding that negotiations for a peace deal have reached a dead end. 

Ukraine has intensified drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, curbing Russian crude production and exports.  Ukraine has attacked Russian refineries, oil tankers, and major pipeline infrastructure at least 30 times in July, the second-highest monthly number of attacks since the war began in 2022.  According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates averaged 3.51 million bpd in July, the lowest in 24 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine.  The attacks on Russian oil infrastructure knocked Russia’s crude production in July to 8.89 million bpd, the lowest in six years, according to secondary source estimates published by OPEC.  Meanwhile, Reuters reported on Friday that Russia’s gasoline production fell to about 80,000 tons a day in August, only 70% of domestic demand, leading to shortages throughout the country.

As a bearish factor for crude, OPEC delegates on August 2 approved their final increase of +188,000 bpd in crude production for September.  The group has now restored all of the 1.65 million bpd supply cutback it made back in 2023 and said it plans to hold output steady for the rest of the year after the September hike.  The production increases by OPEC+ might prove difficult to achieve amid renewed US-Iran military attacks in the region.  OPEC’s July crude production rose by +1.16 million bpd to 19.44 million bpd. 

Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days fell -11% w/w to 97.71 million bbl in the week ended August 21.

Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of Aug 21 were +1.3% above the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -5.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -14.6% below the 5-year seasonal average.  US crude oil production in the week ending Aug 21 rose +0.1% w/w to 13.843 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.862 million bpd posted in November 2025.

Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended August 28 fell by -5 to 447 rigs, modestly below the 1.25-year high of 455 rigs from the week of August 14.