Today’s macroeconomic calendar is moderately busy, with several releases that could increase volatility across FX and bond markets. The main focus in Europe will be on eurozone retail sales and the UK Construction PMI. In the afternoon, attention will shift to the US and Canada, with the weekly ADP employment change, trade balance data, the EIA STEO report and the US 3-year Treasury auction all in focus. A series of speeches from Fed, ECB and BoE officials could also provide fresh market signals, particularly with bond yields still elevated and uncertainty surrounding the future path of interest rates.

Macroeconomic data

• 06:45 AM GMT – France: Industrial Production (MoM) – forecast 0.2% , previous -0.4% .
• 06:45 AM GMT – France: Budget Balance – previous -€145.91 billion .
• 07:00 AM GMT – Switzerland: Adjusted Unemployment Rate – forecast 3.1% , previous 3.1% .
• 07:00 AM GMT – Switzerland: Unadjusted Unemployment Rate – forecast 3.0% , previous 3.0% .
• 08:30 AM GMT – UK: Construction PMI – forecast 44.9 , previous 44.3 .
• 09:00 AM GMT – Eurozone: Retail Sales (YoY) – forecast 1.0% , previous 0.6% .
• 09:00 AM GMT – Eurozone: Retail Sales (MoM) – forecast 0.2% , previous -0.6% .
• 09:30 AM GMT – Germany: 2-Year Schatz Auction – previous yield 3.27% , bid-to-cover 1.3 .
• 12:15 PM GMT – US: Weekly ADP Employment Change – previous 20K .
• 12:30 PM GMT – US: Trade Balance – forecast -$102.05 billion , previous -$88.6 billion .
• 12:30 PM GMT – Canada: Trade Balance – forecast C$1.5 billion , previous C$0.77 billion .
• 12:55 PM GMT – US: Redbook (YoY) – previous 8.2% .
• 02:00 PM GMT – Canada: Ivey PMI – previous 64.3 .
• 04:00 PM GMT – EIA: Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) .
• 05:00 PM GMT – US: 3-Year Treasury Auction – previous yield 4.474% , bid-to-cover 2.720 .
• 08:30 PM GMT – US: API Gasoline Stocks Change – previous +2.991 million barrels .
• 08:30 PM GMT – US: API Distillate Stocks Change – previous -0.286 million barrels .
• 08:30 PM GMT – US: API Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change – previous +0.233 million barrels .
• 08:30 PM GMT – US: API Crude Oil Stocks Change – previous +1.019 million barrels .

Central bank speeches

• 08:30 AM GMT – BoE: Catherine Mann
• 11:45 AM GMT – ECB: Zigman
• 01:00 PM GMT – ECB: Piero Cipollone
• 01:05 PM GMT – Fed: John Williams
• 02:45 PM GMT – Fed: Michelle Bowman
• 05:15 PM GMT – Fed: Jeffrey Schmid