Gold is up around 1% today, trading near $4,380 per ounce. Following an almost 2% rebound on Thursday, the precious metal has erased the losses triggered by the Federal Reserve’s decision and Kevin Warsh’s press conference. Oil is pulling back to just below $103 per barrel today, while gains in U.S. Dollar Index futures have not prevented a broader rebound across metals, with platinum standing out with a roughly 3% advance.

• Oil is declining for a third consecutive session. Markets are betting that Middle East supply disruptions may ease, supported by plans to quickly restore flows through a key Saudi pipeline and by the continued passage of some tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Another supportive factor for gold is the pullback in U.S. Treasury yields following the increase triggered by the Fed’s 25 bps rate hike.
• Despite the earlier sell-off, gold-backed ETFs continue to record capital inflows, suggesting that investor demand remains resilient and that confidence in the metal’s longer-term drivers is still intact.
• A more hawkish Fed path remains a potential risk for gold. Kevin Warsh’s remarks have increased expectations for at least one additional rate hike this year and potentially another two increases in 2027.

GOLD and PLATINUM charts (D1 timeframe)

The rebound has pushed gold back above both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, although the price still remains around 20% below the levels seen before the war with Iran began in late February. A break above the 200-day EMA (red line) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement has brought more optimism back into the market following Wednesday’s difficult session.

Source: xStation5

Source: xStation5