India’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 7.20%, extending its rebound after hitting an over-one-month low, as higher US Treasury yields and concerns over additional bond supply weighed on debt prices. The US 10-year Treasury yield jumped toward 5% following stronger-than-expected inflation, reducing the relative attractiveness of Indian debt and potentially limiting foreign investment. At the same time, substantial government borrowing needs and continued issuance of the benchmark 10-year bond add to securities supply, while tighter banking-system liquidity could constrain domestic demand. Persistent domestic inflation may also limit the Reserve Bank of India’s scope for rate cuts, keeping borrowing costs elevated. However, crude oil prices fell 17% last week, easing imported inflation risks and pressure on India’s external balance and government finances, potentially giving the RBI greater room to ease monetary policy and putting downward pressure on yields.
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