• Indian Rupee receives support from capital inflows and expected RBI support.
• Declining crude offers relief to INR, but pending US sanctions on Iran threaten to push prices up.
• Indian equities rebound slightly while USD weakness adds further momentum to the Indian Rupee.

The Indian Rupee (INR) inches higher against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Monday, positioning itself for a quiet start to the week. Strong capital inflows have supported the local currency, though traders remain attentive to fluctuating oil prices and potential Reserve Bank of India (RBI) interventions designed to maintain stability. Pressure on the Rupee temporarily eased alongside a dip in crude oil prices as investors took profits ahead of expected US announcements regarding stricter sanctions on Iran.

However, crude oil prices threaten to rebound following a statement from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent regarding Washington’s plans to impose unprecedented sanctions on Iran. This potential policy shift, combined with severe disruptions to Iranian oil shipments, reduced offers to Chinese buyers, and an ongoing US naval blockade, risks further constraining global energy markets. Geopolitical tensions around the critical Strait of Hormuz remains high, with vessel transit continuing significantly below historical averages, a major concern for India, the third-largest global crude importer, which experienced record foreign investor equity outflows earlier this year due to elevated oil costs.

Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty that may suppress broader risk appetite, pressure on the Rupee is expected to be cushioned by active Reserve Bank of India (RBI) interventions. Over the weekend, the central bank reported accumulating nearly $73 billion under initiatives launched in June to reinforce India’s balance of payments, pushing foreign exchange reserves near record levels.

India rate outlook shifts as MUFG flags end of RBI easing cycle

Analysts at MUFG/BTMU point out that the latest policy communication from the Reserve Bank of India marks a notable shift in tone. They highlight that “the August MPC minutes were more hawkish than the actual policy meeting and also what markets expected,” adding that the minutes “also suggest the RBI has reached the end of its easing cycle with the next move higher rather than lower.” This reinforces MUFG’s view that the central bank is now poised to pivot away from accommodation and toward rate hikes in the coming months.

Meanwhile, Indian equity markets opened slightly higher on Monday after enduring two straight weeks of losses. Last week, the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex declined by 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively, hit by rising crude prices and climbing bond yields amid escalating Middle East tensions. Market sentiment is expected to remain cautious as investors digest the details of the newly announced US sanctions.

The USD/INR pair drifted downward as the US Dollar faced pressure from fresh fiscal policy moves in Washington. The US Treasury Department surprised markets by announcing plans to at least double its buybacks of longer-dated government debt to curb rising bond yields. Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled that buybacks could expand beyond $4 billion, a move targeted at aligning yields more closely with underlying economic fundamentals.

Dollar seen carrying the weight of US fiscal worries

Strategists at Scotiabank argue that the currency remains the primary shock absorber for mounting US fiscal concerns. With policymakers focused on keeping long-term yields in check, they contend that “efforts to suppress long-term yields mean that the USD will bear a greater—negative—burden from US fiscal policy concerns,” reinforcing their view that the Dollar is likely to stay under pressure as these issues persist.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR declines despite prevailing short-term bullish bias

USD/INR trades around 95.70, holding above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which keeps the near-term bias mildly bullish. The short-term nine-period EMA at 95.6251 sits just below spot, reinforcing a constructive tone, while the 50-period EMA at 95.4515 underpins the broader uptrend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 52 suggests neutral-to-firm momentum rather than overbought conditions, allowing room for further upside as long as price stays above these averages.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the nine-period EMA around 95.6251, with a deeper structural floor at the 50-period EMA near 95.4515. As long as USD/INR defends this support cluster, pullbacks are likely to be limited, and buyers could retain control, with the lack of nearby overhead levels hinting that any fresh advance would need new resistance to be established higher up the chart.