Indonesia’s import growth slowed to its weakest pace in six months in September 2026, while the country’s trade surplus exceeded market expectations, highlighting a stronger-than-anticipated external trade position.

Imports increased by 18.419% year-on-year to USD 24.23 billion, falling short of forecasts for a 20.83% increase and easing from 19.09% growth in August. The slowdown represents the softest annual import expansion since March, suggesting that import demand is losing some momentum.

At the same time, Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of USD 3.36 billion, comfortably exceeding expectations of USD 1.9 billion. However, the surplus remained below the USD 4.34 billion recorded in September last year.

Export performance provided the strongest element of the latest trade figures. Exports increased by 11.87% year-on-year, accelerating from 6.72% growth in August and significantly exceeding forecasts for a 6.45% rise.

The latest figures point to a widening difference between export and import momentum. Stronger export growth is supporting Indonesia’s external trade position, while slower import expansion is helping maintain a substantial trade surplus.

Indonesia Trade Market Snapshot

Indonesia’s Trade Surplus Exceeds Expectations

Indonesia’s trade surplus reached USD 3.36 billion in September, significantly exceeding the market forecast of USD 1.9 billion.

The result indicates that the country’s export performance continues to generate substantial external trade support, even as import growth slows.

However, the surplus was narrower than the USD 4.34 billion recorded in September 2025. This comparison highlights that the overall trade balance remains below its year-ago level despite the stronger-than-expected monthly result.

The latest surplus reflects the combination of accelerating export growth and a moderation in import expansion.

For currency markets, a sustained trade surplus can provide support to the rupiah by contributing to foreign-currency receipts from international trade. The actual exchange-rate impact will also depend on capital flows, domestic demand, investor confidence and broader US dollar movements.

Import Growth Slows to Six-Month Low

Indonesia’s imports increased by 18.419% year-on-year to USD 24.23 billion in September 2026.

The result was below expectations for growth of 20.83% and represented a slowdown from the 19.09% increase recorded in August.

It also marked the weakest annual import growth since March.

The moderation suggests that import demand is expanding at a slower pace, although the annual increase remains substantial.

Import trends are important for assessing the strength of domestic demand and industrial activity. Slower import growth can also contribute to a larger trade surplus when export performance remains strong.

The coming months will provide further evidence of whether this moderation represents a temporary adjustment or a more persistent change in Indonesia’s import demand.

Export Growth Accelerates to 11.87%

Indonesia’s export sector delivered a stronger performance in September.

Exports increased by 11.87% year-on-year, accelerating from 6.72% growth in August and exceeding market expectations of 6.45%.

The improvement in export momentum is an important positive feature of the latest trade figures.

Stronger exports increase the flow of foreign-currency revenues into the economy and can support the country’s external balance. Continued growth would help Indonesia maintain its trade surplus, particularly if import expansion remains moderate.

The stronger export performance also provides a more favourable backdrop for the rupiah, although the currency’s direction will continue to depend on wider financial-market conditions.

Trade Balance: Export Momentum Outpaces Imports

The September figures show a clear difference between the pace of export and import growth.

Exports expanded by 11.87%, while imports increased by 18.419%. Although imports continued to grow more rapidly in percentage terms, their expansion was slower than both the previous month and market expectations.

The resulting trade surplus of USD 3.36 billion exceeded forecasts, indicating that the overall balance of trade was stronger than anticipated.

However, the comparison with the previous year remains important. September’s surplus was below the USD 4.34 billion recorded in the same month of 2025.

The sustainability of Indonesia’s trade position will depend on whether export growth can remain firm while import demand evolves alongside domestic economic activity.

Bullish Sentiment: Factors Supporting Indonesia’s Trade Position

1. Trade surplus beats expectations: The September surplus reached USD 3.36 billion, exceeding the forecast of USD 1.9 billion.
2. Export growth accelerates: Annual export growth increased to 11.87% from 6.72% in August.
3. Exports exceed forecasts: The latest export increase was significantly stronger than the expected 6.45% expansion.
4. Slower import growth: Import expansion eased to 18.419%, helping support the overall trade balance.
5. Foreign-currency export receipts: Stronger export performance can increase foreign-currency revenues and provide support to Indonesia’s external position.

Bearish Sentiment: Factors Weighing on the Outlook

1. Trade surplus below year-ago levels: September’s USD 3.36 billion surplus was narrower than the USD 4.34 billion recorded a year earlier.
2. Import demand remains elevated: Despite slowing, imports still increased by more than 18% year-on-year.
3. Import growth misses expectations: The 18.419% increase was below the forecast of 20.83%, highlighting weaker-than-anticipated import momentum.
4. Uncertain domestic demand: Slower import growth may warrant attention as an indicator of changing demand for foreign goods and industrial inputs.
5. Currency risks remain: A stronger trade balance does not guarantee rupiah appreciation, particularly if capital outflows or broader dollar strength offset trade-related support.

Indonesia Trade and Economic Outlook: What Markets Are Watching

The September trade figures provide a stronger-than-expected result for Indonesia’s external balance, but the outlook remains dependent on the sustainability of export growth.

The acceleration in exports is encouraging, particularly as the latest increase exceeded market expectations. If this momentum continues, Indonesia could maintain a substantial trade surplus and generate stronger foreign-currency receipts.

The slowdown in imports also helped the September balance. However, the moderation needs to be assessed alongside wider domestic economic conditions to determine whether it reflects normalisation or weakening demand.

Markets will be watching the next export and import releases for evidence of whether the current divergence continues.

A sustained improvement in exports combined with controlled import growth could support Indonesia’s external position. Conversely, weaker export momentum or a renewed acceleration in imports could narrow the surplus.

Export Outlook

Indonesia’s export growth strengthened to 11.87% in September, providing an important source of support for the country’s trade balance.

The acceleration from August’s 6.72% increase suggests that export momentum improved during the latest reporting period.

Continued growth would help maintain foreign-currency receipts and strengthen Indonesia’s external trade position.

The key consideration will be whether this improvement can be sustained over the coming months, particularly if global demand conditions become less favourable.

Import Outlook

Import growth slowed to 18.419% in September, marking its weakest annual expansion since March.

Although the pace of growth remains substantial, the latest result was below expectations and lower than August’s 19.09% increase.

The direction of future imports will provide insight into domestic demand, business activity and the requirements of Indonesia’s industrial and commercial sectors.

If import growth continues to moderate while exports remain resilient, the trade balance could receive further support.

Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions

Indonesia’s September trade figures present a relatively supportive picture for the external balance, with the trade surplus exceeding expectations and export growth accelerating.

The USD 3.36 billion surplus was significantly stronger than the forecast of USD 1.9 billion, although it remained below the USD 4.34 billion recorded a year earlier.

The slowdown in import growth to a six-month low helped support the latest result, while stronger exports provided an additional positive contribution.

For currency markets, the figures offer some underlying support to the rupiah through stronger export receipts and a positive trade balance. However, the exchange rate will continue to be influenced by international capital movements, interest-rate expectations and the strength of the US dollar.

The next trade releases will be important in determining whether September represents the beginning of a more sustained improvement in Indonesia’s external position.

Today Markets Analysis

Indonesia’s latest trade figures highlight a strengthening export contribution alongside a moderation in import growth. The resulting USD 3.36 billion surplus exceeded expectations, offering a more positive picture than markets had anticipated.

The acceleration in export growth to 11.87% is particularly encouraging, while imports expanding at 18.419% indicate that demand for foreign goods remains significant despite the slowdown.

The comparison with September last year remains a consideration, as the surplus has narrowed from USD 4.34 billion. The sustainability of the current improvement will therefore depend on continued export performance and the direction of import demand.

For the rupiah, the trade surplus provides a potentially supportive fundamental backdrop, but currency movements will also reflect capital flows and broader dollar conditions.

Currency Hedger View

For Indonesian importers and exporters, changes in trade momentum can influence foreign-currency cash flows, supplier payments and commercial margins.

Exporters receiving US dollars may benefit from reviewing their expected conversion requirements and the timing of future receipts. Importers with dollar-denominated obligations should consider how exchange-rate movements could affect procurement costs and payment budgets.

The combination of a substantial trade surplus and slower import growth provides an important economic backdrop, but businesses should not assume that stronger trade figures will automatically translate into a stronger rupiah.

Companies with recurring international transactions should map their expected receipts, payment dates and currency exposures to assess whether a structured hedging approach may be appropriate.

Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international payments, foreign-exchange exposure and currency risk.

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Disclaimer: This article is provided for general market information and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, a trading recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument or currency. Foreign-exchange markets involve risk, and exchange rates can move significantly. Forecasts and market commentary are subject to uncertainty and may change as new information becomes available. Businesses should assess their individual circumstances and obtain appropriate professional advice before entering into hedging or trading arrangements.