Financial markets start the final session of the week awaiting key economic indicators and the continuation of the Wall Street earnings season. Investors are closely monitoring global economic growth developments and inflationary pressures amidst ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. Today’s session will be dominated by preliminary October PMI releases for manufacturing and services across Europe and the US. These figures will shed light on how major economies are coping with higher interest rates and the state of demand entering Q4. The highest volatility is expected in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, as well as major stock indices including the DAX, S&P 500, and Nasdaq.

Key Asian Session Releases

• In Japan, September CPI inflation accelerated to 2.1% y/y compared to the previous 1.9% y/y, with the core reading matching expectations at 2.1% y/y.
• Japan’s preliminary manufacturing PMI for October fell to 53.3 from 54.1 in the previous month, below the consensus of 54.5.
• In Australia, the preliminary manufacturing PMI for October rose to 49.7 from 49.6, while the services PMI saw a sharp drop to 47.8 from 51.9 in the prior month.

Macroeconomic Calendar

• 00:01 Australia – Preliminary Manufacturing PMI. Consensus: [N/A]. Previous: 49.6.
• 00:01 Australia – Preliminary Services PMI. Consensus: [N/A]. Previous: 51.9.
• 01:30 Japan – Core CPI y/y. Consensus: 2.1%. Previous: 1.7%.
• 02:30 Japan – Preliminary Manufacturing PMI. Consensus: 54.5. Previous: 54.1.
• 08:00 United Kingdom – Retail Sales m/m. Consensus: -0.1%. Previous: 0.5%.
• 09:15 France – Preliminary Manufacturing PMI. Consensus: 50.5. Previous: 50.6.
• 09:15 France – Preliminary Services PMI. Consensus: 50.7. Previous: 51.2.
• 09:30 Germany – Preliminary Manufacturing PMI. Consensus: 53.5. Previous: 53.9.
• 09:30 Germany – Preliminary Services PMI. Consensus: 52.5. Previous: 52.9.
• 09:30 Poland – Unemployment Rate. Consensus: 5.8%. Previous: 5.8%.
• 10:00 Eurozone – Preliminary Manufacturing PMI. Consensus: 52.6. Previous: 52.9.
• 10:00 Eurozone – Preliminary Services PMI. Consensus: 52.5. Previous: 53.0.
• 10:30 United Kingdom – Preliminary Manufacturing PMI. Consensus: 51.7. Previous: 51.9.
• 10:30 United Kingdom – Preliminary Services PMI. Consensus: 51.8. Previous: 52.1.
• 14:30 Canada – Retail Sales m/m. Consensus: 1.3%. Previous: -0.7%.
• 15:45 USA – Preliminary Manufacturing PMI. Consensus: 55.5. Previous: 55.9.
• 15:45 USA – Preliminary Services PMI. Consensus: 58.0. Previous: 58.8.
• 16:00 USA – Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Consensus: 46.3. Previous: 48.1.
• 19:00 USA – Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count. Consensus: [N/A]. Previous: 459.

📊 Corporate Earnings (October 23): Before market open:

• American Express (USA) – Financial Services / Payments

After market close:

• No major mega-cap earnings releases scheduled

3 Markets to Watch Today:

1. EURUSD – A series of preliminary PMI releases for France, Germany, and the broader Eurozone during morning hours will set the direction for the single currency, while the afternoon US data suite (PMIs and University of Michigan index) will test USD strength.
2. S&P 500 / Dow Jones (US500 / US30) – Quarterly results from American Express prior to the Wall Street open and incoming service and manufacturing sector data will dictate market sentiment on US exchanges.
3. GBPUSD – The combination of UK retail sales data and preliminary PMI metrics will drive heightened volatility in the British pound ahead of the US PMI release later in the day.