Soybean futures are trading around $12.70 per bushel, reaching their lowest level in seven weeks as the accelerating US harvest increases near-term supply expectations. Despite renewed Chinese demand for American soybeans, the market remains under pressure as favourable harvesting conditions support fieldwork and traders assess the outlook for domestic processing.

The balance between expanding harvest availability, Chinese export demand and upcoming US crush data is likely to shape the next move in soybean prices. While export commitments provide support, the market may need stronger evidence of sustained demand to offset the pressure from seasonal supply.

Market Snapshot

• Soybean futures: Around $12.70 per bushel
• Price trend: Seven-week low
• US harvest progress: 46% complete, ahead of the 44% average estimate
• Chinese demand: Government buyers booked 8–10 cargoes of US soybeans for shipment from December onward
• US export sales: USDA confirmed private sales of 470,000 tonnes to China
• Upcoming data: September US soybean crush figures from NOPA

US Harvest Progress Increases Supply Pressure

Mostly dry conditions across the US Midwest have allowed farmers to accelerate harvesting after earlier rainfall delays. With 46% of the crop harvested, progress is ahead of the estimated 44% average, increasing the amount of new-crop supply becoming available to the market.

Although midweek rainfall has slowed fieldwork in some areas, drier conditions are forecast in the coming days. If this weather pattern persists, harvesting could continue to advance, reinforcing expectations of greater near-term soybean availability.

This seasonal supply pressure is a key factor weighing on prices. Unless demand strengthens sufficiently to absorb the additional crop, futures may remain vulnerable to further downside.

Chinese Buying Offers a Demand-Side Counterweight

Chinese purchasing activity is providing an important source of support. Government buyers have booked between eight and ten cargoes of US soybeans for shipment from December onward, while the USDA has confirmed private sales of 470,000 tonnes to China.

These transactions demonstrate renewed buying interest and could help limit the impact of harvest-driven selling. Continued Chinese demand would be particularly significant if additional export sales emerge as the US crop moves through the remainder of the harvest season.

However, the sustainability of this support will depend on whether further purchases follow. If export demand slows while harvesting continues at an accelerated pace, the market could remain exposed to downward pressure.

US Soybean Crush Data in Focus

Traders are awaiting September soybean crush data from the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA). Analysts expect processing to fall to 203.737 million bushels, which would represent a one-year low.

The report will provide an important indication of domestic processing demand. A lower-than-expected crush figure could reinforce concerns about near-term demand, particularly while harvest availability is increasing.

Soyoil stocks are also attracting attention, with end-of-month inventories projected at 1.116 billion pounds, their lowest level since November 2024. Tighter soyoil inventories could offer support to the broader soybean complex, although the overall price response will depend on the balance between processing demand, product inventories and incoming crop supplies.

Bullish Scenario

Soybean prices could stabilise if Chinese purchasing continues and additional US export sales are confirmed. Stronger-than-expected crush figures would also help demonstrate that domestic demand is absorbing available supplies.

Lower soyoil stocks could provide another supportive factor, particularly if demand for soybean oil strengthens and improves processing economics.

Under this scenario, the seven-week low could attract renewed buying interest. However, a sustained recovery would likely require evidence that demand can offset the continued arrival of the US harvest.

Bearish Scenario

The bearish outlook would strengthen if favourable weather allows US harvesting to advance more quickly than expected, increasing near-term supply availability.

If Chinese purchases fail to generate a sustained improvement in export demand, prices could remain under pressure. A weaker-than-expected NOPA crush report would add to concerns about domestic demand, particularly if processing falls toward or below the forecast of 203.737 million bushels.

With soybean futures already at a seven-week low, a continued deterioration in demand expectations could leave the market vulnerable to further losses.

Soybean Price Forecast

The near-term outlook remains cautious, with harvest pressure currently outweighing the support from renewed Chinese buying. The direction of the next move is likely to depend on whether export demand and domestic processing can absorb the increasing availability of newly harvested soybeans.

A stabilisation becomes more plausible if Chinese purchases continue, US export sales remain firm and crush data exceed expectations. Conversely, sustained favourable harvesting conditions combined with weaker export or processing demand could keep prices under pressure.

The key distinction is whether the current decline reflects a temporary seasonal supply adjustment or a broader weakening in demand relative to available supplies. Upcoming trade and processing data should help clarify that balance.

Market Outlook: What to Watch Next

• US harvest progress: Further advances under dry conditions could increase near-term supply pressure.
• Chinese export demand: Additional purchases and confirmed sales will be important indicators of sustained buying interest.
• NOPA soybean crush: The September report will help assess domestic processing demand against the forecast of 203.737 million bushels.
• Soyoil inventories: Projected stocks of 1.116 billion pounds could influence sentiment across the soybean complex.
• Weather developments: Continued dry conditions may accelerate harvesting, while renewed rainfall could slow fieldwork and alter the pace of supply entering the market.

Currency Hedger View

Soybeans remain caught between seasonal supply expansion and renewed international demand. The accelerating US harvest is creating downward pressure, while Chinese purchases and potentially supportive soyoil inventory levels offer a counterbalance.

For the coming sessions, the focus should remain on the interaction between export demand, domestic processing and harvest progress. A sustained price recovery would require evidence that demand is keeping pace with incoming supplies, while further deterioration in demand expectations could leave futures exposed to additional weakness.

Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure.

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Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice. Commodity futures involve significant risk, and prices can move unpredictably. Forecasts and scenarios are conditional on evolving market, weather, supply and demand factors.