The UK 10-year gilt yield climbed to 5.38%, recovering from a three-week low recorded on October 15, as investors assessed stronger economic data and the outlook for interest rates and public finances. UK GDP unexpectedly expanded by 0.1% in August, avoiding forecasts of a contraction. The resilience has strengthened expectations that the Bank of England could raise rates, with markets largely anticipating a 25-basis-point increase on November 5, although those bets have eased slightly. Governor Andrew Bailey said there was limited evidence that higher energy costs were feeding into broader prices and wages, but cautioned that it remained too early to assess the risk of persistent inflation. Other policymakers, including Megan Greene and Huw Pill, have urged earlier action to prevent such second-round effects. Meanwhile, Chancellor John Healey is preparing his October 29 budget, promising measures to provide some economic relief while maintaining efforts to reduce the deficit.