UK 10-year gilt yields fell to 5.25%, remaining below the 19-year highs reached earlier this month, as Brent crude eased toward $100 a barrel after recent comments from US President Donald Trump left the door open to diplomacy with Iran and helped ease fears of an imminent supply shock, while stronger regional crude flows have also reduced pressure on physical markets. Traders are slightly paring back expectations for Bank of England rate hikes after policymakers made clear last week that the outlook for inflation, and therefore interest rates, will depend heavily on the path of oil and gas prices in the coming months. Markets currently price around an 80% chance of a hike at the November meeting, while the probability of a second increase by year-end stands at roughly 56%. Meanwhile, investors are turning their attention to next monthโs Autumn Budget, with the government reportedly considering plans to expand a new property tax to cover homes worth more than ยฃ1.5 million.

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