The US PCE price index is expected to increase 0.5% month-over-month in September 2026, which would mark the biggest gain in six months, following a 0.3% rise in August. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, is projected to rise 0.3%, the most in four months after a 0.2% gain. On an annual basis, headline PCE inflation is expected to accelerate to 3.6% from 3.4% in each of the previous two months and the core rate is also seen edging up to 3.1% from 3%. The personal consumption expenditures price index is the primary inflation gauge for the Fed and has been above the 2% target since 2021.
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