Wheat futures finished Friday under pressure across the Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis markets, leaving all three contracts facing a cautious outlook heading into Monday’s session. Chicago December 2026 wheat fell 8 cents to $5.91¼ per bushel, while Kansas City December wheat lost 3¼ cents to $6.32½. Minneapolis December spring wheat settled at $6.16, down 4 cents.

The latest selling extended weekly losses, with Chicago December wheat falling 12¼ cents, Kansas City December declining 11¾ cents and Minneapolis December losing 7¾ cents over the week.

Speculative positioning also deteriorated. Managed money increased its net-short exposure in both Chicago and Kansas City wheat, while US export commitments remain below last year’s levels and the five-year average pace.

With the USDA’s monthly WASDE report scheduled for Tuesday, traders will enter Monday focused on the potential for further adjustments to US wheat stock estimates, alongside export demand and European planting progress.

Market Snapshot

Current Price Action: Wheat Markets Close Lower Across the Board

Chicago SRW futures declined between 1 and 8 cents across most contracts on Friday. December 2026 wheat settled at $5.91¼, down 8 cents, while March 2027 closed at $6.02¾, down 7 cents.

Kansas City HRW futures also finished lower, with contracts losing between 2 and 3¼ cents. December 2026 wheat closed at $6.32½, down 3¼ cents, while March 2027 settled at $6.39¾, also down 3¼ cents.

Minneapolis spring wheat recorded losses of between 4 and 7¾ cents. December 2026 finished at $6.16, down 4 cents, while March 2027 declined 7¼ cents to $6.30¼.

The declines leave all three wheat markets lower for the week, with Chicago and Kansas City experiencing the largest reported December contract losses.

Monday Market Outlook: Bearish Positioning and USDA Report in Focus

Wheat futures approach Monday’s session following a week of declining prices and increasing speculative short exposure.

The Chicago market is particularly vulnerable to changes in sentiment, with managed money’s net-short position reaching 88,726 contracts. Kansas City funds have also expanded their net short, suggesting that speculative traders remain cautious about the near-term price outlook.

Monday’s trading is likely to be influenced by positioning ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE report. Traders will assess whether the market has already accounted for the expected increase in US wheat stocks or whether further selling could emerge before the data is released.

Export demand will also remain important. With accumulated commitments trailing both last year’s level and the five-year average pace, the market needs stronger sales activity to improve the demand outlook.

Speculative Positioning: Funds Increase Wheat Net Shorts

The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed money increasing bearish exposure in both major US wheat futures markets.

• Chicago wheat: Managed money increased its net short by 13,867 contracts to 88,726 contracts.
• Kansas City wheat: Managed money expanded its net short by 4,857 contracts to 6,722 contracts.

The increase in short positioning indicates that speculative sentiment has become more bearish.

The scale of Chicago’s net-short position is particularly significant. Although a heavily short market can become vulnerable to short-covering rallies if bullish news emerges, continued increases in speculative selling could add pressure if fundamentals remain weak.

US Wheat Export Demand: Commitments Remain Below Last Year

USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed total wheat export business for the 2026/27 marketing year at 12.18 MMT.

That represents:

• A 28% decline compared with the same period last year.
• 60% of USDA’s current export projection.
• A pace below the five-year average of 67%.

The figures point to a weaker export programme compared with historical performance.

For wheat prices to establish a more sustained recovery, traders will want to see an improvement in weekly export commitments and shipments. Without stronger demand, the market may remain vulnerable to pressure from supply expectations and speculative positioning.

USDA WASDE Report: US Wheat Stocks Expected to Increase

Tuesday’s USDA monthly WASDE report will be the next major fundamental catalyst.

According to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, US wheat ending stocks are expected to increase by 4 million bushels to 744 million bushels.

An increase in ending stocks would reinforce concerns about available domestic supply, potentially adding to the pressure on futures.

The actual USDA estimate will be important. A larger-than-expected increase could weigh on prices, while a smaller revision or an unchanged figure could provide some relief to a market that has already experienced a difficult week.

Traders will also monitor any changes to export projections and the broader global supply and demand balance.

European Crop Conditions: French Wheat Planting Progress Ahead of Last Year

French wheat planting progress reached 84% as of November 2, according to FranceAgriMer.

That compares with 77% at the same point last year, indicating that planting is progressing ahead of the previous season.

The improved pace provides a positive indication of crop establishment in France. Traders will continue monitoring European planting conditions as the winter crop develops, particularly for any weather-related disruption that could affect future production prospects.

Bullish Sentiment: Factors That Could Support Wheat Prices

1. Potential short covering: The substantial net-short positions in Chicago and Kansas City wheat could create scope for a recovery if fresh bullish information emerges.
2. Market positioning ahead of WASDE: If Tuesday’s ending-stock increase is smaller than expected, traders may reassess the bearish outlook.
3. Existing weekly losses: The recent decline could attract bargain buying if prices stabilise and selling pressure begins to ease.
4. Global crop uncertainty: Future changes in planting conditions and weather could influence expectations for the next wheat harvest, although no specific weather threat is established by the latest figures.

Bearish Sentiment: Factors Weighing on the Market

1. Increasing speculative shorts: Funds expanded their net-short exposure in both Chicago and Kansas City wheat.
2. Weak US export commitments: Total wheat export business is down 28% year-on-year.
3. Below-average export pace: Commitments are at 60% of USDA’s export projection, compared with a five-year average pace of 67%.
4. Higher expected ending stocks: Analysts anticipate US wheat stocks rising by 4 million bushels to 744 million.
5. Faster French planting: French wheat planting has reached 84%, ahead of last year’s 77% pace.

Wheat Price Forecast: What Traders Should Watch Next

The wheat complex enters Monday with a cautious to bearish bias following broad-based weekly losses and increased speculative short positioning.

Chicago December wheat at $5.91¼ and Kansas City December wheat at $6.32½ will remain important reference prices as traders position ahead of Tuesday’s USDA report.

A larger-than-expected increase in US ending stocks could reinforce selling pressure, particularly if export demand remains weak. Continued fund selling would add to that downside risk.

However, the large Chicago net-short position also creates the possibility of a sharp recovery if the USDA delivers a more supportive supply outlook or fresh export demand emerges.

The key will be whether Tuesday’s figures confirm the market’s current expectations or introduce a meaningful change to the supply and demand picture.

Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions

Wheat futures remain under pressure heading into Monday, with all three major US markets recording weekly declines. Increasing speculative shorts and export commitments running behind historical averages are weighing on sentiment.

The immediate focus is Tuesday’s WASDE report and the expected increase in US ending stocks. Until those figures are released, traders are likely to remain cautious, with positioning and expectations influencing price action.

The outlook could improve if the USDA delivers a smaller-than-expected stocks increase or export demand strengthens. Otherwise, wheat futures may remain exposed to further selling, particularly in Chicago wheat, where speculative short exposure has increased substantially.

Today Markets Analysis

The latest wheat market performance highlights a combination of weak export demand, rising speculative bearish exposure and expectations for higher US ending stocks.

Chicago wheat remains the most heavily shorted of the major US contracts, while Kansas City positioning has also moved further into net-short territory. This suggests that traders are increasingly cautious about the near-term outlook.

Monday’s session will be dominated by positioning ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE report. The market’s next meaningful direction is likely to depend on whether USDA stock estimates confirm the bearish expectations already reflected in futures prices.

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Risk Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational and market commentary purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell futures, options, contracts for difference or any other financial instrument. Agricultural commodity markets are volatile and involve substantial risk. Prices and market conditions can change rapidly. Traders should conduct their own research and consider their financial circumstances and risk tolerance before making trading decisions.