US wheat futures recorded gains across all three major markets, with Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis contracts finishing Thursday’s session higher overall. The advance comes as export sales remain relatively strong, with weekly 2026/27 commitments reaching 538,028 metric tonnes, the second-largest total of the current marketing year.

Although sales eased from the previous week’s marketing-year high, the latest figure remained 6.45% above the corresponding week last year. The Philippines led purchasing activity with 119,000 MT, followed by South Korea with 100,000 MT.

Attention is now shifting towards Tuesday’s USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect US wheat ending stocks to increase by 4 million bushels to 744 million bushels, a development that could influence the market’s next direction.

Market Snapshot

Chicago Wheat Futures Edge Higher

Chicago SRW wheat futures finished with modest gains in the front months, although trading remained mixed across the wider contract range.

December 2026 CBOT wheat closed at $5.9925 per bushel, up three-quarters of a cent, while March 2027 contracts settled at $6.0975, gaining a quarter of a cent.

The relatively limited movement suggests that traders are maintaining a cautious position ahead of the next major USDA supply and demand update.

Chicago wheat remains sensitive to expectations for US inventories and international export demand. The latest export sales figures provide some support, but the anticipated increase in US stocks could limit the potential for a stronger recovery.

Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat Records Stronger Gains

Kansas City HRW wheat futures outperformed Chicago contracts, with gains extending across the reported delivery months.

December 2026 KCBT wheat settled at $6.3575 per bushel, up 3 cents, while March 2027 futures gained 3¼ cents to close at $6.43.

The stronger performance indicates firmer buying interest in the hard red winter wheat market during the session.

Traders will continue to monitor the balance between export demand and US inventory expectations. The upcoming WASDE report could provide a fresh indication of whether domestic supplies are expected to tighten or expand.

Minneapolis Spring Wheat Leads the Advance

Minneapolis spring wheat futures posted the strongest gains among the three major markets.

December 2026 MIAX wheat closed at $6.20 per bushel, up 3¼ cents, while March 2027 contracts advanced 4½ cents to $6.385.

The broader Minneapolis market recorded gains of 3¼ to 11 cents during the session, demonstrating stronger price momentum than the other wheat exchanges.

The performance highlights the different trading dynamics across the three wheat markets, with spring wheat contracts showing greater strength during the latest session.

Wheat Export Sales Remain Above Last Year’s Levels

USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 2026/27 wheat sales totalling 538,028 MT.

Although this was lower than the previous week’s marketing-year high, it represented the second-largest weekly total of the current marketing year and remained 6.45% above the same week last year.

The Philippines was the largest buyer, purchasing 119,000 MT, while South Korea accounted for another 100,000 MT.

Additional sales for 2026/27 were reported at 19,200 MT, including 16,000 MT sold to Peru.

The latest figures indicate that international demand remains relatively firm despite the reduction from the previous week’s exceptionally strong sales.

For the wheat market, maintaining export commitments above last year’s levels will be important in absorbing available supplies and supporting prices.

USDA WASDE Report: US Wheat Stocks in Focus

The next major market catalyst will be Tuesday’s USDA WASDE report.

A Bloomberg survey of analysts expects US wheat stocks to increase by 4 million bushels to 744 million bushels.

Higher projected inventories would indicate a slightly larger supply balance than previously anticipated. If confirmed, this could place some pressure on futures, particularly if the increase exceeds market expectations.

However, the final market reaction will depend on the USDA’s figures relative to analyst forecasts and the wider supply and demand outlook.

A smaller-than-expected inventory figure could provide support, while a larger increase could reinforce selling pressure across Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat contracts.

Bullish Sentiment

1. Export sales remain above last year: Weekly commitments of 538,028 MT were 6.45% higher than the corresponding week last year.
2. Second-largest marketing-year total: Despite easing from the previous week’s high, the latest sales figure remains the second-largest of the current marketing year.
3. Strong Asian purchasing: The Philippines bought 119,000 MT, while South Korea purchased 100,000 MT.
4. Gains across all three markets: Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis contracts finished higher overall.
5. Minneapolis strength: Spring wheat futures recorded the strongest gains, with reported advances reaching 11 cents.

Bearish Sentiment

1. Expected increase in US stocks: Analysts anticipate wheat inventories rising by 4 million bushels to 744 million.
2. Export sales retreat from recent high: Weekly sales declined from the previous marketing-year high, indicating some moderation in purchasing activity.
3. Limited Chicago gains: The front-month Chicago contracts recorded only fractional advances, suggesting cautious buying interest.
4. WASDE uncertainty: The possibility of higher inventories could restrict further price gains if confirmed by USDA.

Wheat Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching

The near-term outlook for wheat futures will be heavily influenced by Tuesday’s WASDE report and the market’s interpretation of the latest export sales figures.

The main supportive factor is the continued strength in export commitments. Weekly sales remain above last year’s level, while purchasing activity from the Philippines and South Korea demonstrates ongoing international demand.

The main downside risk is the anticipated increase in US wheat stocks. If USDA confirms higher inventories, traders may reassess the domestic supply outlook and reduce expectations for further price gains.

Chicago wheat will be particularly sensitive to the inventory update, while Kansas City and Minneapolis contracts will also be influenced by the broader direction of the wheat complex.

A smaller-than-expected increase in stocks could support further buying, while a larger inventory figure could place renewed pressure on prices.

US Wheat Supply Outlook

The expected increase in US wheat stocks to 744 million bushels is the key domestic supply consideration ahead of Tuesday’s report.

The projected 4-million-bushel increase is relatively modest, but the final USDA estimate will determine whether the market faces a larger supply balance than previously anticipated.

Traders will be looking for confirmation of the inventory outlook and any adjustments to the wider US wheat balance sheet.

Until the report is released, the possibility of higher stocks may limit aggressive buying, particularly in Chicago wheat.

Global Wheat Demand Outlook

International demand remains an important source of support for US wheat prices.

The latest weekly export sales total was 6.45% above the corresponding week last year, while the Philippines and South Korea accounted for significant purchases.

However, the decline from the previous week’s marketing-year high suggests that traders will want to see whether export commitments can maintain their recent strength.

Continued sales above last year’s levels would help reinforce the demand outlook. A sustained reduction in weekly purchasing activity could make it more difficult for the market to absorb available supplies.

Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions

Wheat futures are entering the next sessions with modest positive momentum, supported by export sales that remain above last year’s levels.

Minneapolis spring wheat is showing the strongest performance, while Kansas City HRW contracts have also recorded firmer gains. Chicago SRW futures have advanced more cautiously.

The focus now shifts towards Tuesday’s WASDE report, with analysts expecting US wheat stocks to increase to 744 million bushels.

If USDA confirms a smaller-than-expected inventory increase, wheat futures could find additional support. Conversely, a larger increase could encourage selling and limit the recent recovery.

Export demand will remain equally important. Continued international purchasing, particularly from major Asian buyers, could help offset concerns surrounding domestic inventories.

Today Markets Analysis

The wheat complex is showing modest strength, with all three major US markets finishing higher overall. Export sales provide a supportive fundamental backdrop, remaining above the same period last year and representing the second-largest weekly total of the current marketing year.

However, the market is approaching an important supply-side test. The expected increase in US wheat stocks to 744 million bushels could influence price direction, particularly if the final USDA estimate differs from expectations.

Minneapolis spring wheat is currently demonstrating the strongest price performance, while Chicago remains more restrained.

The coming sessions are likely to be dominated by positioning ahead of the WASDE report. Traders will be assessing whether international demand is strong enough to offset potentially higher US inventories.

Currency Hedger View

For international grain merchants, millers, food manufacturers and agricultural importers, US dollar movements can have a direct impact on the cost of purchasing wheat from American suppliers.

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Disclaimer

This market analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading recommendations or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument or commodity. Agricultural futures and derivatives trading involve significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Commodity prices can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and seek independent professional advice before making financial or trading decisions.