Today Markets Analysis: Wheat futures finished mixed on Monday, but the underlying fundamentals remain challenging. US spring wheat harvest is essentially complete, winter wheat planting is beginning, and export shipments continue to trail last year’s pace significantly. At the same time, a larger Ukrainian crop estimate is adding to global supply expectations.

The result is a wheat market caught between seasonal US crop developments and a lack of convincing export demand.

US Spring Wheat Harvest Nearly Complete

The US spring wheat harvest is now 93% complete, putting progress 1 percentage point ahead of the normal pace.

That removes much of the uncertainty surrounding the spring crop and shifts attention toward winter wheat, where planting has reached just 8%, running 4 percentage points behind the five-year average.

The planting delay is worth monitoring, particularly if weather conditions deteriorate during the remaining planting window. However, at this stage, the market appears more concerned about demand than acreage timing.

US Wheat Exports Remain the Major Weakness

The latest export inspection figures provide the clearest bearish signal.

US wheat shipments totaled 456,720 metric tonnes, or approximately 16.78 million bushels, during the week ending September 10.

That was:

• 5.9% below the previous week
• 39.8% below the same week last year
• Taking marketing-year shipments to 5.676 million tonnes
• Marketing-year shipments are now 27.8% below last year’s comparable period

Japan was the largest destination at 118,788 tonnes, followed by Mexico at 111,415 tonnes and Thailand at 93,003 tonnes.

The problem for bulls is therefore not simply one weak weekly number. The cumulative export pace is also materially behind last year.

Ukraine Adds More Global Supply

Ukraine is providing another reason for wheat traders to remain cautious.

APK-Inform has raised its estimate for Ukraine’s 2026/27 wheat crop to 25 million tonnes, an increase of 2.4 million tonnes from its previous forecast.

Ukrainian wheat exports are projected at 10.5 million tonnes for the marketing year.

For global buyers, additional Ukrainian availability increases competition for US wheat, particularly in price-sensitive markets where origin can be switched relatively easily.

That makes the US export deficit even more important for Chicago wheat.

Wheat Futures Finish Unevenly

The different wheat contracts reflected the lack of a clear bullish catalyst.

Chicago wheat held up better than Kansas City and Minneapolis contracts, but the broader complex still lacks evidence of a sustained demand-driven rally.

The Market Needs an Export Catalyst

Wheat can remain supported by weather risks and geopolitical uncertainty, but those factors need to translate into actual buying.

For now, the export numbers are pointing in the opposite direction.

A 27.8% year-on-year decline in marketing-year shipments leaves the US needing either stronger foreign demand, a supply disruption elsewhere, or a meaningful weather threat to change the balance.

Without one of those catalysts, rallies could continue to attract selling from producers and commercial participants.

What Traders Are Watching Next

The next major signals for wheat will be:

• US winter wheat planting progress
• Whether planting delays widen beyond the current 4-point deficit
• Weekly US export inspections and whether the year-on-year gap begins to narrow
• Import demand from Japan, Mexico and other major buyers
• Ukrainian crop and export developments
• Weather across the US Plains as winter wheat establishment progresses
• Currency movements affecting the competitiveness of US wheat exports

The export data will be particularly important. A recovery in weekly shipments would give the market evidence that US wheat is becoming more competitive internationally.

Currency Hedger View

For wheat, currency movements are directly linked to export competitiveness.

A stronger US dollar can make US wheat more expensive for international buyers, particularly when exporters are competing against Ukraine and other Black Sea suppliers.

This makes the dollar an important part of the wheat equation. If the US currency remains firm while Ukrainian supply expectations increase, US exporters may face an increasingly difficult pricing environment.

From a corporate perspective, grain exporters and international agricultural buyers should also consider how forward FX rates affect contracted wheat costs and margins. Currency Hedger’s role is particularly relevant where commodity purchases, export receipts and operating costs are denominated in different currencies.

Today Markets View

The headline says mixed trade, but the underlying wheat story is leaning cautious.

The US spring harvest is virtually complete and winter wheat planting has begun, yet the more important signal is demand. US marketing-year exports are running almost 28% below last year’s pace, while Ukraine is now expected to produce a larger crop.

That combination limits the bullish argument.

Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets, said: “Wheat has a supply story that is relatively manageable, but the demand picture is harder to ignore. Until US export shipments begin to recover, rallies are likely to face resistance.”

The market can still turn quickly if weather disrupts winter wheat establishment or a major international buyer steps back into the US market. For now, however, the burden of proof remains with the bulls.

Bottom Line

Wheat futures are struggling to build momentum because US export demand remains substantially weaker than last year, while larger Ukrainian production estimates add to global competition.

The next test is whether US export shipments can improve as winter wheat planting gets underway.

Until that happens, $7 wheat remains vulnerable to further pressure, particularly if the US dollar stays firm and Black Sea supplies remain competitive.

Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.