• WTI stages a modest bounce from the vicinity of a four-week low, though it lacks bullish conviction.
• Easing supply concerns counter geopolitical uncertainties and cap the upside for the black liquid.
• The mixed technical setup warrants caution before placing directional bets around the commodity.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – edges higher during the Asian session on Tuesday, reclaiming the $89.00 mark and snapping a two-day winning streak. The black liquid, however, remains close to a four-week low, touched last Friday, amid mixed fundamental cues.

The geopolitical risk premium remains in play amid the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which, in turn, offers some support to crude oil prices. That said, resilient Middle Eastern crude exports, along with a G7 emergency stockpile release, have eased supply concerns and might cap any meaningful upside for the commodity.

From a technical perspective, crude oil prices now seem to have found acceptance below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. However, some follow-through weakness below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July-September upswing is needed to back the case for further losses amid mixed oscillators on the said chart.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains marginally negative, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 46 hints at subdued, consolidative momentum rather than a decisive recovery. Hence, the 200-period SMA at $90.60 might continue to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at $93.62.

The cycle high anchor near $101.85 marks a distant bullish objective that is unlikely to be challenged unless crude oil prices can reclaim and hold above the intermediate resistance band. Meanwhile, immediate support is located at the 38.2% retracement at $88.52, with deeper levels at the 50.0% level near $84.40 and the 61.8% Fibo. at $80.29 if selling pressure extends.

WTI 4-hour chart