Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that institutional tensions around Poland’s National Bank are escalating, with board composition and legal questions creating a grey zone just as inflation risks rise. EUR/PLN has broken above 4.40 and the Zloty continues to underperform other CEE currencies, with Poland-specific uncertainty seen as dominant and no clear near-term catalyst for reversal.

NBP board risks pressure currency

“Local media coverage of PM Tusk’s standoff with NBP management heated up in recent days, with an article yesterday published on Onet.pl citing several insider reports that NBP governor Adam Glapinski is reportedly preparing for a major face-off in early November, when deputy governor Adam Lipinski’s term will expire (4 November). This would leave NBP’s management board with only 5 members, fewer than the statutory 6 officially required for legally valid NBP decisions, and create a grey zone around a key institution. The board will lose a further member on 1 January.”

“The State Tribunal process against Glapinski could also return in November it appears, although the voting rights on this issue remain legally disputed. This leaves investors facing several possible institutional configurations, none of which offers immediate clarity just as the macroeconomic environment is shaping up in a distinctly pro-inflationary direction, requiring prompt action by the central bank.”

“EUR/PLN breached the 4.40 level this week, and the zloty is extending its underperformance of other CEE currencies. Global risk sentiment may be an unhelpful factor at present, but Poland-specific uncertainty is probably dominant. It is difficult to envisage a near-term trigger which will reverse the zloty’s underperformance.”

“President Karol Nawrocki has re-submitted four nominations for Tusk’s countersignature, but Tusk has not revealed his plans. One option would be to accept only selected candidates, possibly forcing Glapinski to work with rivals such as Ludwik Kotecki. A more confrontational possibility would be to allow the Board to fall below its statutory size, creating legal exposure if Glapinski were to convene meetings regardless.”