CommerzBank
CommerzBank, Institutional
Turkish Lira: CBRT maintains cautious easing stance – Commerzbank
Tatha Ghose at Commerzbank reports that Turkey’s Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) cut its one-week repo rate by 100bp to 36.0%, alongside similar moves in overnight rates. Despite acknowledging upside inflation risks from higher Oil, the bank now claims indicators “confirm” disinflation and signals meeting-by-meeting flexibility without altering its easing trajectory. Commerzbank […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 4 hours ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
South Korean Won: Hawkish BoK supports consolidation – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay and Dr. Henry Hao highlight that the Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate at 3.00% after two prior hikes, but delivered a clearly hawkish message. Strong semiconductor exports underpin higher growth expectations and rising inflation pressures. The authors note KRW strength since June and expect USD/KRW to consolidate in a […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 4 hours ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Euro: France risks and ECB expectations keep EUR/USD steady – Commerzbank
Antje Praefcke at Commerzbank highlights that political and rating risks in France, plus cautious European Central Bank (ECB) expectations, weigh on the Euro (EUR) but are largely priced in. Markets now see an ECB hike in December and more tightening next year, which may be revised lower. She anticipates relatively stable EUR/USD into next week, […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 days ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
New Zealand Dollar: Inflation and weak demand challenge RBNZ – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur describes a double bind for the New Zealand Dollar as rising monthly price indices signal higher CPI, while electronic card data show stagnating retail spending and likely negative real consumption. With markets pricing an 80% chance of a Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate hike in two weeks, he remains cautious and […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 week ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
US Dollar: Strong data yet limited support – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes that despite stronger-than-expected US inflation, retail sales and producer prices, the Dollar and EUR/USD have largely reverted to pre-data levels. She argues that without a shift toward more overall Federal Reserve tightening, US rate expectations and the US–Euro area differential stay broadly sideways, leaving recent EUR/USD weakness driven more by […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 week ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Norwegian Krone: High-for-longer Norges Bank stance supports currency – Commerzbank
Antje Praefcke at Commerzbank explains that Norges Bank’s September decision to bring forward a rate hike was driven by persistent inflation above its 2% target. With headline inflation at 3.4% and core at 3.0%, the bank now signals policy will stay elevated for longer and another hike cannot be ruled out, a stance she sees […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 week ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Turkish Lira: Managed depreciation fails to remove devaluation risk – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reports that Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) Governor Karahan claims a faster Lira depreciation is being allowed to avoid a sharper future devaluation. Ghose argues that USD/TRY remains on a mechanically managed, roughly 20% annualised depreciation path, which is still too slow versus 30–35% inflation. With CBRT cutting rates, […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 week ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Indian Rupee: RBI support points to softer pair – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s India section notes September CPI at 5.5% year-on-year, above August and near breaching the RBI’s target band, with risks skewed to the upside from Oil, INR weakness and El Niño. The authors flag RBI’s recent FX measures that strengthened the Indian Rupee and suggest USD/INR could ease back toward the 94–96 range in the […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Indian Rupee: RBI measures support gains against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao and Charlie Lay note that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has unveiled a broad package of tools to stabilise the Indian Rupee (INR), including a special Dollar facility for oil importers, tighter FX derivatives rules, and higher reserve requirements. They argue these steps should curb Dollar demand, tighten INR liquidity […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Brent: Houthi escalation keeps risk premium elevated – Commerzbank
Commerzbank strategists note that Brent Oil remains above USD 100 as markets weigh heightened geopolitical risk from Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure. While early Asian trading saw prices slip below USD 104, they stress that repeated strikes on Riyadh’s main airport raise the risk of US involvement and further disruption to Persian Gulf energy flows. […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 weeks ago