CommerzBank
CommerzBank, Institutional
Federal Reserve: December rate hike expectations reinforced – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Dr. Christoph Balz highlights that persistent US inflation keeps pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten further. The report cites comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller advocating at least a 25-basis-point hike in December, with 50 basis points considered under certain conditions. Commerzbank continues to expect another 25-basis-point rate increase at the December FOMC […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 days ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Polish Zloty: Hawkish talk but weak PLN outlook – Commerzbank
Tatha Ghose at Commerzbank reports that NBP Governor Adam Glapinski presented a hawkish tone but effectively signalled no action until at least Q1, ruling out a December hike. New projections show inflation above target into 2027, even with tax relief. Ghose warns that relying on temporary fuel-price measures risks leaving monetary policy too loose and […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 week ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Swedish Krona: Riksbank path shifts focus to February – Commerzbank
Antje Praefcke at Commerzbank reports that the Riksbank raised its policy rate from 1.75% to 2.00% as expected and remains in restrictive mode, but the statement weakens the case for a December hike. She sees the key decision likely pushed to February 2027, with EUR/SEK potentially moving back above 11 if rate increases are delayed […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 week ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Indian Rupee: Range holds against US Dollar with oil support – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s FX team notes USD/INR traded slightly lower around 94.90, continuing to hold near the lower end of its established 94–97 range over six months. The report argues that the recent drop in Oil prices could support the Indian Rupee and help keep USD/INR anchored toward the bottom of this band, in line with steady […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Euro: Policy risks could revive swings against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes EUR/USD has settled around 1.12 after dropping from 1.16, with options-implied volatility falling again. She argues that limited changes in relative Fed and ECB expectations and a broader trend of smaller interest-rate cycles and synchronised business cycles have dampened FX swings. However, she warns that calm in FX markets is […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Thai Baht: BoT cautious on normalisation, downside persists – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay reports that the Bank of Thailand kept its policy rate at 1.00%, with the MPC maintaining a hold but signalling a less dovish stance. Authorities highlight financial stability risks from prolonged low rates and see scope for gradual hikes as growth improves, yet expect policy to stay on hold through 2026–2027. USD/THB […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
US Dollar: Stronger growth supports rate hike pricing – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister highlights that robust US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 3.4% annualised in Q3 reinforces the case for a stronger Dollar versus other G10 currencies. Faster US growth gives the Federal Reserve (Fed) more scope to address inflation risks with rate hikes, a key driver of USD outperformance in 2022/23. He stresses […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Japanese Yen: BoJ signals inflation milestone before December decision – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister reports that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left rates unchanged after September’s hike, but delivered a hawkish signal by indicating underlying price pressures have reached the 2% target. A further rate increase in December is seen as increasingly likely and almost fully priced. Any additional hints from Governor Kazuo Ueda could give […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
Indian Rupee: Range holds against US Dollar as RBI stays hawkish – Commerzbank
Commerzbank strategists Dr. Henry Hao and Charlie Lay note that USD/INR rose slightly but continues to trade comfortably within the 94–97 range seen over the past six months. They highlight resilient Indian industrial production and a hawkish Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stance, while warning that elevated Oil prices remain a near-term headwind for the […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 weeks ago
CommerzBank, Institutional
US Dollar: Fed meeting keeps Dollar steady – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister highlights that the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged, with two dissenting votes for a hike. Strong US growth and labour data support a high probability of December tightening, yet inflation expectations are seen improving. Planned changes to meeting structure from 2027 should shift USD volatility toward data releases rather than Fed decisions. […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 weeks ago