Geoff Yu at BNY highlights that Middle East tensions and constrained traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are keeping key energy supply routes at risk. Qatar’s extended force majeure on LNG exports threatens European winter gas balances and could re-ignite inflation pressures, while Brent, WTI and Dutch TTF prices reflect a fragile equilibrium in Oil and gas markets.

Hormuz bottlenecks threaten European gas

“Qatar extended force majeure on LNG supplies to European and Asian buyers as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily constrained, keeping a major source of global gas supply offline.”

“The key risk for Europe is a prolonged tightening in gas supply ahead of winter, with LNG prices already close to double pre-war levels.”

“Continued disruption would intensify competition with Asian buyers for alternative cargoes, raise import costs and potentially rebuild inflation pressure through energy and industrial channels.”

“Europe therefore remains highly exposed to any failure to reopen Hormuz and restore Qatari LNG flows.”

“Iran also indicated that reopening the Strait of Hormuz could form part of a broader deal if unspecified U.S. conditions are met, keeping the shipping route central to any de-escalation.”