BNY
BNY, Institutional
Federal Reserve: Hiking path constrained by supply shocks – BNY
John Velis at BNY Markets argues that current US inflation is being driven by non-rate-sensitive components of core PCE, limiting how effective further Federal Reserve tightening can be. He expects one more rate hike in December 2026 but questions whether all the hikes priced for 2027 will be delivered, given the nature of the inflation […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 2 weeks ago
BNY, Institutional
Japanese Yen: Structural support from regional flows – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that Japanese Yen (JPY) strength is reshaping APAC (Asia-Pacific) FX dynamics by easing prior effective exchange rate pressures and allowing more nominal appreciation in regional currencies. The report stays structurally constructive on JPY as long as current-account support holds, but cautions that a renewed Oil shock would reverse gains and force […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 weeks ago
BNY, Institutional
Euro: ECB succession and data support resilience – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that Eurozone assets remain supported by steady composite PMI readings and improving signs in German demand, while speculation over ECB leadership succession grows. He highlights Friedrich Merz’s upcoming meeting with ECB officials and questions surrounding Christine Lagarde’s tenure and a possible German candidate for the presidency. Leadership questions meet steady PMIs […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
BNY, Institutional
US Dollar: Hedging impulse fades as holdings stabilize – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that the July FOMC-driven Dollar hedging impulse has largely run its course, with early signs of USD buying returning against EUR, MXN and CAD. Trade-weighted Dollar holdings are historically light, suggesting scope for stabilization, but a sustained recovery still depends on stronger U.S. asset demand and renewed real-rate leadership. Dollar hedges […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago
BNY, Institutional
Japanese Yen: Intervention risk may revive tactical longs – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu says JPY selling has largely run its course, while USD/JPY’s return toward 160 keeps intervention risk firmly in focus. The bank notes that positioning has not yet turned decisively long JPY, but sees scope for tactical yen buying to re-emerge if markets again anticipate official intervention. Intervention risk anchors USD/JPY levels “Exposures […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
BNY, Institutional
Euro: Inflation test for ECB hike odds – BNY
Geoff Yu at BNY argues that upcoming German CPI and Eurozone flash CPI are critical for European Central Bank expectations, with markets already pricing a near-certain September hike. While services inflation is softening and second-round wage effects remain unclear, stronger headline readings could reinforce hawkish ECB messaging and challenge Europe’s fragile cyclical recovery and activity […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago
BNY, Institutional
Natural Gas: Hormuz risks and Qatari LNG disruption – BNY
Geoff Yu at BNY highlights that Middle East tensions and constrained traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are keeping key energy supply routes at risk. Qatar’s extended force majeure on LNG exports threatens European winter gas balances and could re-ignite inflation pressures, while Brent, WTI and Dutch TTF prices reflect a fragile equilibrium in Oil […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago
BNY, Institutional
British Pound: Month-end rebalancing and UK policy mix – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that month-end rebalancing flows leave the British Pound (GBP) vulnerable, with GBP seen as particularly exposed after strong performance and stretched GBP/USD levels. United Kingdom (UK) assets react to Chancellor Healey’s emphasis on fiscal discipline under the Labour government, while business confidence improves and pricing intentions ease, shaping expectations for the Pound and […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago
BNY, Institutional
Oil: Hormuz supply recovery eases risk premium – BNY
Geoff Yu at BNY notes that improving flows through the Strait of Hormuz are easing Oil supply fears and supporting a lower Brent price profile. Kuwait and Qatar have restored crude shipments to about 70% of pre-war levels, lifting total Hormuz flows. As more Gulf barrels reach the market, the disruption premium in Oil prices […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago
BNY, Institutional
Polish Zloty: Import pass-through risks challenge cuts – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that Euro strength is amplifying import price pass-through risks for Poland, with EUR/PLN gains feeding into higher import prices. The Monetary Policy Council’s guidance of unchanged rates contrasts with market pricing for a return above 4%. Yu sees Poland as facing the clearest hawkish risk in Central and Eastern Europe, making […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago