BNY
BNY, Institutional
LatAm FX: Carry exposed as volatility rises – BNY
Geoff Yu at BNY highlights growing vulnerability in Latin American FX carry trades as realized volatility spikes and G10 rates drift higher. With Brazilian and Mexican central banks seen on hold and terms-of-trade support lacking, real rate gains must come from policy. Positioning data show selling pressure in COP and CLP, while BRL needs a […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 week ago
BNY, Institutional
British Pound: Weaker GBP may help revive inflows – BNY
Geoff Yu at BNY highlights that foreign appetite for United Kingdom (UK) assets is constrained by uncertainty over Bank of England (BoE) tightening and currency swings, even as domestic investors increase Gilt purchases. He notes that expectations for BoE policy look too hawkish, and suggests a weaker trade‑weighted British Pound (GBP), alongside fiscal credibility and […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 weeks ago
BNY, Institutional
Federal Reserve: Hiking path constrained by supply shocks – BNY
John Velis at BNY Markets argues that current US inflation is being driven by non-rate-sensitive components of core PCE, limiting how effective further Federal Reserve tightening can be. He expects one more rate hike in December 2026 but questions whether all the hikes priced for 2027 will be delivered, given the nature of the inflation […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
BNY, Institutional
Japanese Yen: Structural support from regional flows – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that Japanese Yen (JPY) strength is reshaping APAC (Asia-Pacific) FX dynamics by easing prior effective exchange rate pressures and allowing more nominal appreciation in regional currencies. The report stays structurally constructive on JPY as long as current-account support holds, but cautions that a renewed Oil shock would reverse gains and force […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
BNY, Institutional
Euro: ECB succession and data support resilience – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that Eurozone assets remain supported by steady composite PMI readings and improving signs in German demand, while speculation over ECB leadership succession grows. He highlights Friedrich Merz’s upcoming meeting with ECB officials and questions surrounding Christine Lagarde’s tenure and a possible German candidate for the presidency. Leadership questions meet steady PMIs […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
BNY, Institutional
US Dollar: Hedging impulse fades as holdings stabilize – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that the July FOMC-driven Dollar hedging impulse has largely run its course, with early signs of USD buying returning against EUR, MXN and CAD. Trade-weighted Dollar holdings are historically light, suggesting scope for stabilization, but a sustained recovery still depends on stronger U.S. asset demand and renewed real-rate leadership. Dollar hedges […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
BNY, Institutional
Japanese Yen: Intervention risk may revive tactical longs – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu says JPY selling has largely run its course, while USD/JPY’s return toward 160 keeps intervention risk firmly in focus. The bank notes that positioning has not yet turned decisively long JPY, but sees scope for tactical yen buying to re-emerge if markets again anticipate official intervention. Intervention risk anchors USD/JPY levels “Exposures […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
BNY, Institutional
Euro: Inflation test for ECB hike odds – BNY
Geoff Yu at BNY argues that upcoming German CPI and Eurozone flash CPI are critical for European Central Bank expectations, with markets already pricing a near-certain September hike. While services inflation is softening and second-round wage effects remain unclear, stronger headline readings could reinforce hawkish ECB messaging and challenge Europe’s fragile cyclical recovery and activity […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
BNY, Institutional
Natural Gas: Hormuz risks and Qatari LNG disruption – BNY
Geoff Yu at BNY highlights that Middle East tensions and constrained traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are keeping key energy supply routes at risk. Qatar’s extended force majeure on LNG exports threatens European winter gas balances and could re-ignite inflation pressures, while Brent, WTI and Dutch TTF prices reflect a fragile equilibrium in Oil […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago
BNY, Institutional
British Pound: Month-end rebalancing and UK policy mix – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that month-end rebalancing flows leave the British Pound (GBP) vulnerable, with GBP seen as particularly exposed after strong performance and stretched GBP/USD levels. United Kingdom (UK) assets react to Chancellor Healey’s emphasis on fiscal discipline under the Labour government, while business confidence improves and pricing intentions ease, shaping expectations for the Pound and […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 months ago