ING’s commodities team notes Copper has surged to fresh records on the LME, with three‑month futures nearing $14,800/t, as traders position for potential US tariffs on refined Copper imports. They argue policy expectations have tightened availability outside the US and squeezed shorts, warning that prices could correct sharply if proposed tariffs are delayed, softened or rejected while demand remains subdued.

Policy risk keeps copper elevated

“Copper rose to another record on the LME yesterday, with three-month futures nearing $14,800/t. The rally continues to be driven by expectations of US tariffs on refined copper imports.”

“Tariff positioning has pulled large volumes of metal into the US, with COMEX inventories rising to record levels. Meanwhile, less metal is available outside the US, tightening the London market and putting pressure on short positions.”

“The market is waiting for President Trump’s decision on refined copper tariffs. The proposal is for a 15% duty from January 2027, rising to 30% in 2028. If approved, tariffs would keep drawing metal into the US.”

“Another exemption or delay could unwind the trade and ease tightness elsewhere.”

“We expect copper prices to remain elevated while tariff uncertainty persists. The rally looks increasingly policy-driven. Prices could correct sharply if tariffs are delayed or ruled out, particularly as demand remains subdued.”