Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux and colleagues expect the NBP to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%, with Governor Glapiński emphasising flexibility and data dependence. Given worsening inflation and the removal of a near‑term cut, they see policy as supportive for the Zloty and expect EUR/PLN to remain biased towards the 4.30 area over the coming quarters.

NBP stance underpins Zloty versus Euro

“In CEE, the NBP is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 3.75% today, taking dovish rhetoric of Governor Glapiński’s in its stride.”

“Since the remarks in July, the inflation backdrop has worsened with headline CPI accelerating to 3.4% yoy, driven largely by higher fuel prices linked to Middle East tensions. That shift has effectively taken a September rate cut off the table.”

“Glapiński reminded investors last week that policy should remain flexible and data dependent. MPC member Duda has already indicated rates could remain unchanged through end-2026.”

“Our house view is for status quo until at least 2Q27. Against this backdrop, the policy outlook remains supportive for the currency and should help to keep EUR/PLN biased towards the 4.30 handle.”