OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes that the US Dollar Index (DXY) has held a firmer tone after the FOMC’s 25 bp hike and a higher rate path, supported by elevated US Treasury yields. However, he stresses that further USD upside now likely requires another leg higher in yields or stronger US data, with key resistance around 100.32–100.60 and support near 99.90–99.20 guiding near-term price action.

Fed repricing lifts Dollar but cautiously

“For now, the Fed’s renewed tightening bias and still-elevated UST yields should keep some support under the USD. But after the repricing last week, the hurdle for another meaningful leg higher may be higher. Further gains may increasingly require another move up in yields or firmer US data that reinforce expectations for additional tightening.”

“This week, US PMIs and Fed communication could matter for whether the post-FOMC USD rebound has further room to run.”

“DXY last closed at 100.22 levels. Daily momentum is bullish though recent rise in RSI showed signs of moderation near overbought conditions.”

“Last Fri’s price pattern showed that the push higher is losing some conviction around resistance – consistent with near term upside fatigue but short of calling it a reversal. We should continue to watch price action if any bearish follow-through plays out.”

“Resistance at 100.32 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high), 100.60. Support at 99.90 levels (50, 100 DMAs), 99.4 (38.2% fibo, 21 DMA) and 99.2 levels (200 DMA).”