DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee expects the Swiss National Bank to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0% at the September 24 meeting, despite higher energy prices and a modest uptick in headline inflation. He sees scope for a near-term inflation forecast upgrade, but notes that Swiss growth has improved and CHF haven pressures have eased against EUR and GBP.

SNB stance, inflation and haven demand

“The Swiss National Bank has little reason to follow the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank into tightening at its September 24 meeting.”

“The SNB is nevertheless likely to raise its near-term inflation forecast as elevated energy prices feed through into the economy amid persistent uncertainty in the Middle East.”

“The SNB may also pay closer attention to the second-round effects highlighted in its June minutes, including processed food, transport, tourism, and restaurants.”

“The hawkishness of any forecast upgrade will depend less on higher near-term inflation than on whether the SNB sees the oil shock feeding into underlying inflation.”

The SNB could also temper its language on FX intervention. In June, it expressed “an increased willingness to intervene to counter a rapid and excessive CHF appreciation,” framing the concern in terms of price stability and broader activity in its export-led economy.”

“Those concerns have since eased. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs has raised its 2026 growth forecast to 1.7% from its 0.9% projection in June. 2Q26 GDP growth accelerated to 1.9% QoQ (2.8% YoY) from 0.6% QoQ (0.5% YoY) in 1Q26.”

“Meanwhile, the CHF has surrendered more than half of its post-Liberation Day gains against the EUR and GBP. SNB should view the Fed and ECB hikes as providing a stronger counterweight to haven demand for the CHF.”