Standard Chartered’s Chong Hoon Park expects the Bank of Korea to keep its base rate at 3.00% through October and November, despite a less favourable inflation-growth mix. The report highlights sticky underlying inflation, strong AI- and semiconductor-led growth, and tighter financial conditions after a sharp KOSPI correction. The authors still project two 25bps hikes in 2027, taking the terminal rate to 3.50%.

BoK seen on hold despite risks

“We expect the Bank of Korea (BoK) to keep the base rate unchanged at 3.00% in October and November.”

“We continue to forecast a 25bps hike in early 2027, followed by another in H1-2027, taking the terminal rate to 3.50% by end-2027.”

“However, we acknowledge the rising risk of a November hike.”

“However, given the sharp equity-market correction and the associated tightening in financial conditions, we maintain our base case of a hold in November.”

“We will closely watch the October meeting for a shift in the balance of risks.”