Danske Research Team notes UK flash PMIs strengthened in October, with the composite rising to 53.1 and new orders growing at the fastest pace in over two years. Employment returned to growth, but input cost inflation hit its highest level since June. The bank judges the release leans hawkish for the BoE ahead its November meeting, despite some supply‑chain distortions.

Improving data supports BoE tightening risk

“In the UK, the flash PMIs strengthened in October, with both services and manufacturing picking up. The composite rose to 53.1 from 52.0 as services increased to 53.1 from 52.1 and manufacturing edged up to 52.8 from 51.9.”

“The details were also encouraging, with new orders growing at the fastest pace in over two years and employment returning to growth for the first time since September 2024.”

“At the same time, input cost inflation rose to its highest level since June, mainly driven by higher energy, raw material and transport costs in manufacturing.”

“However, part of the manufacturing gain reflected longer supplier delivery times, pointing to supply-chain disruptions rather than stronger demand. Overall, the print leans to the hawkish side for the BoE ahead of its November meeting.”

“In the UK, the 2027 budget on Wednesday could gather attention ahead of the BoE’s November meeting, as inflation concerns coupled with stronger growth could trigger a hike”