MUFG
Institutional, MUFG
Japanese Yen: BoJ’s Koeda reinforces tightening case – MUFG
MUFG’s Michael Wan reports that Bank of Japan (BoJ) Board Member Junko Koeda has strengthened the case for further policy tightening. Koeda emphasized upside price risks, still-accommodative financial conditions and judged the neutral rate to be well above 1%. MUFG sees her remarks as consistent with continued policy normalization, with swaps implying a high probability […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 4 weeks ago
Institutional, MUFG
US Dollar: AI-driven reversal after CPI gains – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar has quickly surrendered gains made after the stronger US CPI report, with the Dollar Index retreating from a year-to-date high near 102.95 back towards 102.00. He links the move to an unwind of AI-related trades and risk-off conditions, but stresses that firm inflation data and Fed expectations still […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 4 weeks ago
Institutional, MUFG
Japanese Yen: BoJ hawkishness supports JPY against US Dollar – MUFG
Lee Hardman at MUFG highlights that the Japanese Yen has benefited from risk-off trading and hawkish Bank of Japan commentary, pushing USD/JPY back below 158.00. BoJ board member Junko Koeda signalled upside risks to prices and a neutral rate well above 1%, while MUFG still expects no move at the October meeting but another hike […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 4 weeks ago
Institutional, MUFG
Indian Rupee: RBI FX steps support INR but raise hedging costs – MUFG
MUFG’s Michael Wan explains that recent RBI FX measures have supported spot Indian Rupee, while temporarily disrupting derivatives liquidity. Offshore INR forward premiums fell sharply after restrictions on non-resident NDF access and higher hedge costs. These actions reduced speculative Dollar demand and helped INR rally, though at the expense of wider bid-ask spreads and less […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 4 weeks ago
Institutional, MUFG
Euro: Bearish sentiment persists into year-end against US Dollar – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman highlights that the Euro (EUR) remains near recent lows around 1.1200 against the Dollar, pressured by fiscal and political concerns in the Euro area, especially France. IMM data show leveraged funds rebuilding short Euro positions. With no clear positive catalyst identified, MUFG warns the Euro remains vulnerable to further weakness heading towards […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 month ago
Institutional, MUFG
Chinese Yuan: PBoC stance and valuation debate guide currency path – MUFG
Halpenny highlights a new PBoC document defending China’s FX policy and rejecting claims that CNY drives its trade surplus, instead pointing to manufacturing competitiveness. He notes BIS REER data showing a 20% fall from the 2022 peak and IMF estimates of 12–20% undervaluation, suggesting CNY is undervalued but only partly explains China’s export strength. China […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago
Institutional, MUFG
Japanese Yen: BoJ normalisation supports gains against US Dollar – MUFG
MUFG’s Michael Wan highlights that USD/JPY is still trading above 158, but Governor Ueda’s comments point to further Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy normalisation. Ueda stressed anchoring inflation around 2% and noted upside risks from imports, AI demand and JPY weakness. Wan remains constructive on the Japanese Yen, though further gains likely need faster BoJ […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago
Institutional, MUFG
Japanese Yen: Pares gains against US Dollar but BoJ outlook supportive – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that the Japanese Yen has softened after a Bloomberg report on the GPIF’s September meeting, lifting USD/JPY back above 158.00. Despite the correction, the Yen remains the best-performing G10 currency since August, helped by faster Bank of Japan policy normalization and higher JGB yields. Reuters sources suggest the BoJ may signal […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago
Institutional, MUFG
European Central Bank: Contagion risk reshapes rate expectations – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that unwanted tightening in Euro-zone financial conditions is prompting markets to pare back expectations for further ECB rate hikes. Pricing has shifted closer to MUFG’s forecast of two additional moves, which may still be too aggressive if fragmentation risks intensify, while speculation grows that the ECB could slow QT or activate […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago
Institutional, MUFG
RBI to keep tightening risks alive – MUFG
MUFG analysts Lin Li, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan and Khang Sek Lee highlight that Asia FX will be driven by the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) finely balanced decision on 7 October. They expect RBI to keep rates on hold but stress that a hiking cycle from December is likely, with a total of 50–75bps […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago