MUFG
Institutional, MUFG
Japanese Yen: Focus on strength and BoJ path – MUFG
MUFG’s Michael Wan highlights ongoing strength in the Japanese Yen, with recent USD/JPY volatility seeing the pair drop toward 152.88 before stabilizing near 153.26. Mixed Japanese data, including stronger labour cash earnings and softer GDP, have not altered expectations for a 25 bps BoJ rate hike in September, keeping attention on BoJ communication and Yen-supportive policy signals. […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 3 weeks ago
Institutional, MUFG
Japanese Yen: Strengthens against US Dollar on BoJ outlook – MUFG
MUFG’s Michael Wan notes the Japanese Yen has strengthened below 154 against the US Dollar (USD), its firmest level since February, as markets price faster Bank of Japan tightening. A 25 bps hike at the 18 September Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting is seen largely priced, with focus shifting to future rate guidance. Wan projects […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 4 weeks ago
Institutional, MUFG
US Dollar: Strong payrolls fail to sustain Dollar gains – MUFG
MUFG’s Lloyd Chan notes the Dollar strengthened after a stronger-than-expected August US jobs report, with Nonfarm Payrolls and labour participation surprising to the upside while wage growth eased. Markets now price a significant chance of further Federal Reserve tightening by December, but DXY remains little changed since Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, suggesting investors are not […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 4 weeks ago
Institutional, MUFG
Indian Rupee: RBI inflows and reduced tail risks – MUFG
MUFG’s Michael Wan notes strong Indian Rupee (INR) outperformance driven by larger-than-expected US Dollar (USD) inflows from Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) FCNR(B) measures, which now exceed US$130bn. Wan still expects USD/INR to trend higher over time but argues that RBI’s FX measures have reduced left-tail depreciation risks. MUFG also sees scope for higher Indian rates given […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 4 weeks ago
Institutional, MUFG
Canadian Dollar: BoC inflation focus and valuation divergence – MUFG
Derek Halpenny at MUFG notes the Canadian Dollar’s (CAD) immediate advance after the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% but signalled greater concern over inflation. Communications hinted at a possible earlier hike, yet MUFG doubts a sustained CAD rebound, citing short‑term valuation models that suggest USD/CAD should trade higher, with Oil and Middle East risks […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago
Institutional, MUFG
Japanese Yen: BoJ hike expectations shape FX – MUFG
Michael Wan at MUFG notes continued dispersion in Asia FX, with USD/JPY trading just below 160. NHK reports US officials urging Japan to raise interest rates, while markets already price a 92% chance of a September Bank of Japan (BoJ) hike. Communication on the full path of rate increases is seen as key for Japanese […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago
Institutional, MUFG
British Pound: Energy-driven inflation risks support GBP against US Dollar – MUFG
MUFG highlights that rising European natural gas prices are reviving inflation risks, which could push the Bank of England toward another rate hike and underpin the Pound. While crude Oil remains contained, UK natural gas futures have surged, and the bank notes that this divergence in energy dynamics may support both the Euro and Pound against peers. […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago
Institutional, MUFG
Japanese Yen: Himino signals hawkish shift – MUFG
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes that the Japanese Yen reaction to Deputy Governor Himino’s speech was limited, even as his comments aligned with market expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike in September. The BoJ is seen shifting toward a faster pace of tightening, with FX developments increasingly central to its inflation outlook, while Jackson Hole […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago
Institutional, MUFG
US Dollar: Fragmentation risks and reserve diversification – MUFG
Michael Wan at MUFG discusses US threats of economic punishment on countries dealing with Iran and new sanctions on over 60 entities. He argues that rising geoeconomic fragmentation encourages countries to diversify reserves, trade and financial links away from reliance on any single system, including the Dollar-based one. Wan also references ongoing US–Canada trade tensions […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago
Institutional, MUFG
Canadian Dollar: Trade war escalation threatens recent strength – MUFG
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny argues the Canadian Dollar’s (CAD) reaction to the new US tariffs on USD 20bn of Canadian exports will hinge on escalation risks rather than the initial measures. CAD has underperformed in G10 after talks broke down, and Halpenny warns that tit-for-tat tariffs and fading support from higher Oil could intensify CAD downside […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago