TDS
Institutional, TDS
Fed policy: December hike seen sealed with 50bps risk – TD Securities
TD Securities’ macro research team argues that the upside US CPI surprise and firm Core PCE projections make a December Fed rate hike virtually certain. They still favor a 25bp move but see rising odds of an additional hike in early 2027 and consider a 50bp “catch-up” move in December as a clear possibility, pending […]
by Currency Hedger
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- 1 day ago
Institutional, TDS
US Dollar: Selective strength and year-end drift – TD Securities
TD Securities’ macro team, led by Jayati Bharadwaj and colleagues, argues that the US Dollar (USD) is losing its status as an effortless haven, with muted gains despite an AI-driven global equity selloff. They expect US vs Rest of the World (RoW) equity performance to remain the key driver. Muted haven appeal and modest downside […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 days ago
Institutional, TDS
Brent: Higher-for-longer price regime – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Ryan McKay argues that Brent crude Oil is entering a higher-for-longer regime, with fair value estimated at $90-100/bbl once the Iran and broader Middle East conflicts conclude, narrowing to $80-90/bbl into H2 2027–2028. He highlights persistent risk premia, fragile Middle East flows, tight product markets and recovering global demand as key supports for […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 week ago
Institutional, TDS
Brazilian Real: Volatility around 5.60 against US Dollar – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists see USD/BRL driven by Brazilian politics and fiscal concerns after Lula’s surprise election win. They expect elevated two-sided volatility around 5.60 in the near term, referencing the 2014 post-election rally and arguing that political uncertainty and fiscal policy worries must ease before the Brazilian Real can stage a sustained recovery. Election shock […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 weeks ago
Institutional, TDS
US Dollar: October Fed pause raises December hike odds – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect the FOMC to keep the Fed Funds Rate at 4.00% in October, validating current market pricing while avoiding fresh forward guidance. They see inflation risks as elevated and argue that a hold now increases the likelihood of a December hike, with a non‑trivial chance of a larger […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 weeks ago
Institutional, TDS
Bank of Canada: Gradual return to neutral – TD Securities
TD Securities’ macro team, led by Andrew Kelvin and Robert Both, does not share market conviction for an October Bank of Canada rate hike. They expect the BoC to hold at 2.25% now, then deliver 25bp increases in December and January, taking policy to the midpoint of its neutral range while monitoring inflation breadth, growth […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 3 weeks ago
Institutional, TDS
US data week: ISM, labor and sentiment in focus – TD Securities
Munoz and Nir expect a relatively quiet US data calendar, with ISM Services likely slipping to 54.0 versus 55.0 consensus, modestly higher Jobless Claims, and a small decline in UMich Sentiment to 47.5. They note September payrolls moderated mainly on seasonal factors, while underlying labor-market strength and rising participation support a still-resilient backdrop. Services survey […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago
Institutional, TDS
US Dollar: Fading rallies as Fed pricing peaks – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Macro Research’s FX team notes the softer US payrolls data is only marginally negative for the Dollar, with the labor market still described as buoyant and neither overheating nor deteriorating. They argue market pricing for Fed hawkishness has likely peaked and see near-term rate hike expectations easing in both the US and Europe. […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago
Institutional, TDS
US Dollar: Fed outlook supported by robust data – TD Securities
TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir assess US PCE and GDP revisions as broadly supportive for a firm US macro backdrop and a still-hawkish Federal Reserve stance. They highlight robust US growth, sticky inflation and upgraded GDP forecasts, arguing that lower inflation revisions do not materially alter the narrative for the US Dollar […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 1 month ago
Institutional, TDS
United States Dollar: Rebound needs stronger payrolls data – TD Cowen
TD Cowen’s Washington Strategy team, led by Chris Krueger, notes that a durable rebound in the Dollar hinges on stronger US policy follow-through and renewed upside surprises in US data. The analysts remain broadly bearish on the Dollar for now, highlighting limited upside versus the Canadian Dollar and Chinese Yuan as markets await key US […]
by Currency Hedger
- 0 Comments
- 2 months ago