Higher-than-expected U.S. CPI data for August, due today at 14:30, could trigger volatility in gold and the broader metals market. Precious metals may therefore remain in focus both before and after this key U.S. macroeconomic release. Gold has already rebounded twice from the $4,300 area in recent weeks, and a return above the 200-period EMA on the hourly chart, together with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, appears to be the main near-term target for bulls. In theory, a softer-than-expected CPI reading, particularly for core inflation, could support such a move.

GOLD chart (H1 interval)

So far, partly due to rising bond yields, gold has been unable to hold above $4,500 and has returned to a downward trend. However, the hourly chart offers some encouragement for bulls, as demand has re-emerged in an important support area and the metal appears unwilling to give up without a fight. The RSI has moved higher, while the MACD shows a bullish crossover that may point to improving short-term momentum.

Source: xStation5 On the daily chart, gold is trading slightly below the 200-day EMA, suggesting a cautious approach toward precious metals and continued uncertainty among investors regarding the durability of the recent rebound. From a technical perspective, the medium-term trend remains bearish. A breakout above $4,440 could begin to challenge this weakness. At the same time, a small head-and-shoulders pattern has developed over recent weeks, with a local peak near $4,700 and the neckline close to current levels around $4,340. The RSI has fallen below the neutral 50 level, while the MACD averages continue to suggest that sellers retain the upper hand. The key medium-term resistance zone remains at $4,600–4,700, while $4,300 is the main support level.

Source: xStation5