UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note EUR/USD’s downside bias has intensified after the pair broke below 1.1135 faster than expected, reaching 1.1121. Intraday, they see strong but stretched downside momentum, limiting a clear break under 1.1095, with support at 1.1110 and resistance at 1.1145/1.1160. Over 1–3 weeks, they still look for a move toward 1.1095 while strong resistance is now at 1.1190.

Euro remains pressured but oversold near lows

“24-HOUR VIEW: EUR declined to a low of 1.1172 two days ago. Yesterday, when EUR was at 1.1175, we stated that “given the increasing downward momentum, the bias for EUR is tilted to the downside toward 1.1150.” We pointed out that “the next support at 1.1135 is likely out of reach for now.” Our directional call was correct, but we underestimated the downward momentum, as EUR declined to a low of 1.1121. Downward momentum remains strong, but given the oversold conditions, EUR may not be able to break clearly below 1.1095 today. Note that there is another support level near 1.1110. Resistance is at 1.1145, followed by 1.1160.”

“1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned negative on EUR yesterday (27 Oct, spot at 1.1175), indicating that “there has been a tentative buildup in downward momentum, and from here, EUR could edge lower, potentially testing 1.1135.” We added, “to sustain the downward momentum, EUR must hold below the ‘strong resistance’ level, now at 1.1220.” We did not expect EUR to breach 1.1135 so quickly, as it dropped to a low of 1.1121. While short-term conditions are oversold, EUR could continue to decline toward 1.1095. On the upside, the ‘strong resistance’ level is now at 1.1190.”