Danske Research Team reports that EUR/USD remained little changed around 1.1670, with the chart showing only a modest pullback from overnight highs before a partial recovery. Lower US yields and softer oil prices weighed on the Dollar, but declining European rates limited the Euro’s upside, leaving the pair without a clear directional signal.

EUR/USD stays broadly stable despite softer US yields

“US yields and oil prices moved lower yesterday, with Brent falling below USD90, as rumours stirred that there might be renewed hope for diplomacy between the US and Iran. EUR/USD was little changed however, as European rates declined as well.”

“In the euro area, The German Ifo index rose by more than expected in August. The current assessment index rose to 88.5 (cons: 87.0, prior: 86.6) which is the highest level since 2024. Expectations rose to 89.1 (cons: 87.5, prior: 86.6) and are thereby almost back at the pre-war level.”

“The evidence of a clear rebound in the German economy is thus piling up, particularly driven by the manufacturing sector. We expect the rebound to continue going forward as orders are up markedly and fiscal policy supports activity.”

“In the US, consumer confidence weakened further in August, with the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index falling to 89.4, below consensus expectations of 91.2 and the previous reading of 90.8. The assessment of the current situation improved, while expectations for the future declined.”

“Labour market perceptions also strengthened, as more respondents viewed jobs as plentiful, although overall labour market sentiment remains on the weak side. Plans for major purchases were mixed, with intentions to buy cars and homes declining, while planned vacations increased. Overall, the release does not provide a clear market signal.”

“In the US, the July PCE inflation figures, the Fed’s preferred measure, will be released in the afternoon. In June, PCE inflation was 3.7% y/y, still way above the Fed’s target. Core inflation also remains elevated and was at 3.3% in June. Keep in mind that US Bureau of Economic Analysis will update their methodology for their calculation of PCE at the September release, which is expected to decrease core PCE by 0.2 percentage points for the August PCE figures.”