HSBC sees the Euro facing mounting headwinds from both monetary policy and energy markets. The bank notes vulnerability stemming from uncertainty over the European Central Bank’s willingness to raise rates versus a more hawkish Federal Reserve, while Europe’s greater exposure to elevated energy costs and disappointing September data pose challenges for EUR/USD performance and regional growth.

EUR pressured by rates and energy

“The EUR remains vulnerable to uncertainty over the European Central Bank’s appetite to raise rates, particularly given the Federal Reserve’s more hawkishmessaging at its September meeting.”

“Even if the relative rates story does not drivedramatic moves in EUR-USD, Europe’s greater exposure to elevated energy costscould weigh on growth and the external balance.”

“Despite stronger PMI readings,other economic data in September has generally disappointed so far, posing challenges for the EUR.”