United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann see USD/CHF consolidating after a sharp fall and rebound, with flat momentum indicators. For the next 24 hours, they expect the pair to hold between 0.8125 and 0.8185. On a 1–3 week horizon, there is still a chance of a dip toward 0.8110 before recovery risks increase, while 0.8205 caps the topside.

Consolidation persists near recent lows

“24-HOUR VIEW: On Wednesday, USD fell more than we expected to 0.8124 and then rebounded strongly. Yesterday, we highlighted that “downward momentum has slowed with the rebound, and USD is unlikely to weaken further.” We expected USD “to consolidate between 0.8125 and 0.8185.” Our assessments were not wrong, even though USD traded within a slightly narrower range of 0.8130/0.8185, closing largely unchanged at 0.8165 (-0.04%). Momentum indicators remain flat, and we continue to expect USD to trade between 0.8125 and 0.8185.”

“1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our update from yesterday (05 Nov, spot at 0.8165) remains valid. As highlighted, “there is a chance for USD to test 0.8110 before the risk of a recovery increases.” On the upside, a breach of 0.8205 (no change in ‘strong resistance’) would mean that the USD decline from one week ago has run its course.”